Col. Ants Kiviselg, head of the Estonian Defense Forces Intelligence Center, said that throughout the Easter period, only April 20 stood out, when the number of attacks by Russian armed forces dropped to 96 and, for the first time, no air assets were used to strike targets in Ukraine.

"On that day, the use of indirect fire and unmanned attack systems also decreased by two-thirds. The number of attacks returned to previous levels the very next day and the intensity of tactical airstrikes increased by 1.5 times compared to the period before Easter. Russia's long-range strikes across Ukrainian territory also resumed immediately. Last night, missile attacks were carried out against targets in the Kyiv, Kharkiv and Kherson regions. Russia's long-range aviation bombers were also active," Kiviselg said.

"Therefore, there are still no signs at the front or in the operations of the Russian Armed Forces that indicate any preparations for a possible ceasefire. This makes Russian President Putin's public peace messaging a hollow mockery aimed at misleading the public. Russia continues its war of attrition and the depletion of Ukraine's military resources."

Kiviselg added that Russian forces continue to apply offensive pressure along all established fronts. "The main axis of attack for the Russian Armed Forces remains in Donetsk Oblast, where the greatest activity is still concentrated around the city of Pokrovsk, accounting for nearly a third of all daily attacks. Russia also continues to exert strong pressure toward Toretsk, where they are gradually expanding a foothold gained through marginal advances. In other directions, Russian attacks have not been successful and the line of contact has not changed," he said.

According to Kiviselg, Ukraine has scored a certain degree of revenge through the explosion at a central ammunition depot in Kirzhach, which belongs to the 51st GRAU (the Russian Defense Ministry's Main Missile and Artillery Directorate).

"Although the Russian Defense Ministry claimed the explosion was caused by careless handling of explosives and Ukraine has not commented on the incident, initial assessments suggest the impact of the Kirzhach explosion could be comparable to the September 2024 explosions at the Toropets central ammunition depots, when Russia lost 30,000 tons of various types of ammunition," Kiviselg said.

He noted that up to 75,000 shells may have been destroyed — equivalent to about two and a half months' worth of artillery rounds.

He also stated that both sides have increased their use of drones as well as their drone production capacity.

At present, the EDF Intelligence Center sees no indication that Russia is preparing for a major summer offensive.

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook and Twitter and never miss an update!