News about Russia forming new military units and building military infrastructure, such as tent camps, in the Leningrad Military District close to Finland's border has recently been reported by the Wall Street Journal and New York Times. Finland's public broadcaster Yle published a story on the same topic in January.  

A joint investigation by the Estonian outlet Eesti Ekspress found similar information last year about bases close to the Baltic States, Finland and Poland.

Speaking on the morning show "Terevisioon" on Tuesday, Kiviselg said the uptick in activity is connected to Russia's military reforms announced at the end of 2022.

"Above all, these activities near the Estonian and Finnish borders are related to the new army reform, the recruitment and training of personnel, and their deployment to Ukraine," the colonel said.

"However, if the war were to hypothetically end tomorrow, these camps would likely not disappear, because the army reform is already underway and additional personnel have been recruited. Eventually, they will need to be stationed somewhere," he told the show.

The intelligence chief confirmed that Russian bases behind the borders of Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are currently mostly empty. The majority of the troops usually stationed there have been sent to fight in Ukraine.

"In recent months, we have not seen the same kind of developments near the Estonian border as we have seen along the Finnish border. However, we have observed these tent camps here for several years, for example, near Ostrov close to the Latvian border, and in Kamenka, where the tent camps still remain to this day," Kiviselg said.

These camps house troops undergoing training before being sent to the war.

No new buildings – yet

The colonel said some of the infrastructure at bases behind the Estonian border is being renovated. There may be nothing special about this.

"We have not identified new buildings for new units directly near our border so far. In the near future, permanent structures will certainly follow. We have identified the construction of support facilities — repair hangars or storage hangars — but no personnel deployments or permanent infrastructure have been confirmed yet," he said.

Estonia's intelligence services believe some units may be deployed to Russia's borders after the war ends. The country has already "shifted into second gear," for example, by increasing defense spending, Kiviselg said.

He stressed that while the Russian army is currently bigger than it was in February 2022, many of the troops are not well-trained.

"They are good individual fighters, but they have not been trained to operate in larger units, and the various branches of the military have not been trained to work together either. So if we are talking about a potential confrontation with NATO, that would certainly require something more. It is not enough just to move units into place and hope for a favorable outcome," Kiviselg said.

The intelligence chief added that he does not foresee a rational decision from Russia to confront NATO in the near future.

While moving units and maintaining troop numbers is not a problem for Russia, Moscow understands that NATO is not Ukraine and that even after three years, he said, the war in Ukraine has not progressed as quickly as they had hoped.

"However, we cannot rule out a miscalculation, which an autocratic regime is likely more prone to make than a democracy," Kiviselg added.

Russia's armed forces are expanding: The example of the 44th Army Corps

The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service laid out Russia's re-establishment and development of the Leningrad Military District in its latest annual report, completed at the end of 2024.

ERR News has republished the relevant chapter below:

Despite suffering the largest post-World War II human losses on the battlefield, Russia's armed forces are growing. New units and formations are being established, primarily with recruited contract soldiers. Russia is not merely restoring its pre-war personnel numbers of 600,000-700,000 soldiers; this target was already reached during the partial mobilisation in autumn 2022. Since then, Russia has simultaneously worked to restore the combat readiness of its operational forces and implement force generation by creating new units staffed with contracted personnel. By 2026, the Kremlin aims to expand its military to 1.5 million soldiers.

In 2024, the Russian Armed Forces re-established the Leningrad Military District, forming the 44th Army Corps and the 6th Combined Arms Army's 69th Motor Rifle Division (Kamenka, formerly the 138th Guards Separate Motor Rifle Brigade) near Estonia. After their formation, both units were deployed to the Ukrainian front to gain combat experience. Additionally, in the second half of 2024, the 6th Combined Arms Army began forming the 68th Motorised Rifle Division (Luga, formerly the 25th Guards Separate Motor Rifle Brigade), with this process likely to continue into 2025. The fact that both an army corps and a motorised rifle division were assembled near Estonia within a single year demonstrates Russia's capacity to create large military formations in a relatively short time

The 44th Army Corps, which contributed to the increase in Russian forces near Estonia in 2024, is planned for permanent deployment in the direction of Finland. Its core units were established over seven or eight months between autumn 2023 and spring 2024, primarily using newly recruited contract soldiers. The manoeuvre units of this corps – the 72nd Motor Rifle Division and the 128th Motor Rifle Brigade – saw their first combat in May 2024 in Kharkiv Oblast, where they attacked Ukrainian forces. Their training period, in line with Russia's current warfare practices, was brief and concentrated on individual skills and small-unit tactics (squad, platoon, company).

Old military garrisons repurposed

The formation of the 44th Army Corps' combat support and service support units is expected to continue into 2025, as their training, arming and equipping require more time. The permanent bases for these units will likely include repurposed old garrisons in the Republic of Karelia. Renovating and constructing these facilities is projected to take at least three to four years, while the necessary housing for military personnel and their families will likely require even more time.

In summary, Russia is expanding its armed forces both on paper – through presidential decrees increasing the official number of military positions – and, in practice, through recruitment. The establishment of units under the 6th Combined Arms Army and the 44th Army Corps in 2024 confirms that the Kremlin is not merely making plans but is also successfully executing the creation of new units. Over the next two years, a lack of political will is unlikely to impede the mobilisation of additional resources. However, the sustainability of forming and maintaining new formations over a three-to-five-year horizon remains uncertain, depending heavily on the duration of the Russia-Ukraine war, Russia's economic resilience and the determination of Western nations to maintain sanctions.

The Kremlin has chosen a path of long-term confrontation, committing to the mobilisation of additional societal resources to rebuild the military and achieve its reform goals. If Russia succeeds in continuing its military reform and forming the planned units, Estonia and NATO will face a Russian force posture in the coming years that poses a sustained military threat.

You can read the agency's 2024 yearbook here.

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