Looking at Russia, it has been clear for some time that we have moved from difficult times to dangerous times, Merilo told Tuesday evening's one-on-one interview show "Esimene stuudio.

Despite waging a war of conquest, Russia is carrying out military reforms and its strength has increased, he said.

"How long the Russian economy can sustain this, we do not know at the moment. But in the near future, the [military] threat is more likely to grow," said the commander.

Finnish and international media have recently reported on an uptick in activity near Finland's border, including the building of tent camps to house soldiers. Merilo said it is no secret that Russia is carrying out military reforms to increase the size of its units and build up its military presence along NATO's borders.

"We know that short-term, very superficial training is being conducted for those units that are being quickly sent to Ukraine," he said.

No such activity has been observed near the Estonian border, the EDF commander added.

"At the moment, we are not seeing any gatherings or concentrations. We know that the announced Zapad exercise will take place this year, and at some point, [Russian] units will begin moving for that exercise. But today, the situation along our borders is rather the same as it has been since the second half of 2022, when most units were moved to Ukraine," he told the show.

"We are not seeing that kind of activity near our borders. That does not mean that if the war in Ukraine were to pause, Russia would not be able to redeploy its forces quickly — it certainly can, and it will. But for now, things are calm along our borders," Merilo said.

 Col. Ants Kiviselg, head of the Estonian Defense Forces' Intelligence Center, made similar comments Tuesday when speaking on the morning show "Terevisioon."

Merilo not bothered by "Jaguar" tanker incident

Earlier this month, the Estonian Navy unsuccessfully tried to stop and inspect a Russian shadow fleet tanker. For the first time, a vessel was shielded by Russian Su-35 fighter jets.

But Merilo said it did not deserve so much attention and called it a routine operation by the Defence Forces. He pushed back on the presenter describing it as an "incident".

"I wouldn't even call it an incident. /.../ We carried out our procedures, including issuing the requirement for the vessel to enter our waters for inspection. That requirement was ignored. We we not even close to forcibly boarding the ship, because it posed no threat to our critical infrastructure or to the state of Estonia," the general said.

"From the perspective of the commander of the Defence Forces, it didn't even raise my pulse, to be honest. Everything was routine," he added.

However, Merilo did acknowledge that it was the first time Russia had dispatched fighter jets to defend a shadow fleet vessel. This should show the world how vital the shadow fleet's operations are to Russia and the lengths it is prepared to go to protect them, he said.

"They took this step probably to convince their domestic audience that they are still strong and capable of defending themselves. If they were trying to intimidate us, well, it didn't work. They didn't scare us, or anyone in NATO," he said.

Russia's nervousness is also evident in the Baltic Fleet's drills currently taking place in the Baltic Sea, Merilo added.

"Russia knows that one of its biggest vulnerabilities is the revenue stream tied to the shadow fleet, which begins at the port of Ust-Luga. So it must conduct drills to demonstrate strength and to protect the critical infrastructure that underpins those financial flows. At the same time, this is a planned exercise, it is not new or unexpected. We are calmly observing what they practice and how they practice it," the commander explained.

Estonian defense industry has "very high potential"

Speaking about Estonia's developing defense industry, Merilo said he sees it as a very important field for the country and that the state should prioritize domestic products whenever possible.

"I believe Estonia's defense industry has very high potential, and I think we also have innovative solutions that others may not. During the Siil exercise, we cooperated with various defense industry companies and tested many things. I believe in the Estonian defense industry; we should now look at how to create some preferential conditions for our defense industry in public procurements, just as other European countries do for their own industries," the general said.

Merilo said Estonia's forces are prepared to fight, though the challenge in a confrontation with Russia lies in being outnumbered.

"We need to raise our lethality from the current level through technological capability," he said.

As for capability development, Merilo said there is still a need to build a multi-layered and effective air defense system, and to establish a lethal and effective precision deep-strike capability.

"This is what will convince Russia that any attack against us will end in failure," said the commander of the Defence Forces

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