"Over the past week, the average number of attacks by the Russian Federation has increased, reaching around 200 attacks per day — roughly 30 more than the previous week on average," Col. Ants Kiviselg said at the Ministry of Defense's weekly briefing.

He noted that this increase demonstrates there are still no signs that Russia is willing to engage in peace talks or scale back its military activity.

"Russia is likely making full use of the current moment and maintaining offensive operations at a high level in order to exhaust Ukraine's military resources as much as possible before any agreements are reached that might limit combat intensity. They are also trying to project the image of an army capable of sustaining a prolonged war of attrition to gain the most favorable negotiating position," Kiviselg explained.

According to him, Russia continues to apply pressure across all established offensive sectors, with the highest number of attacks taking place in the Pokrovsk area of Donetsk Oblast, accounting for about 40 percent of all assaults.

"But despite this, Russia has failed to make any significant progress in that direction over the past week," Kiviselg said. "Overall, Russia has achieved very little success in any populated areas. As a result, we're seeing the Russian Federation shift its focus to gains outside populated zones. Primarily, they are attempting to disrupt Ukrainian supply routes, thereby putting pressure on Ukrainian defensive strongholds," he added.

He noted that warmer weather is aiding these efforts, as drying ground conditions allow units to maneuver off paved roads, meaning troop movements are no longer so constrained.

Kiviselg also pointed out that Ukrainian forces have successfully prevented Russian troops from expanding their bridgehead on the western bank of the Oskil River near Kupiansk and have not allowed them to build bridges suitable for moving heavy equipment across.

"With summer approaching and temperatures rising, we'll likely see renewed offensive activity in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts, particularly in the island areas of the Dnipro River delta, where both sides are trying to secure favorable positions," Kiviselg said.

Meanwhile, Ukraine has continued its military operations in Russia's Kursk and Belgorod oblasts, where Ukrainian forces currently control several dozen square kilometers.

According to Kiviselg, the EDF Intelligence Center has identified a seasonal shift in the nature of Russia's deep strikes in Ukraine: "Over the past month, Russia has primarily used Geran-type attack drones and, in isolated instances, short-range ballistic missiles. However, the participation of Russian long-range aviation in strikes on Ukrainian territory has declined significantly. This likely indicates the end of the winter bombing campaign. We saw a similar pause last year."

"Russia will probably try to present this as a de-escalation measure on the political level during any potential peace talks. But just like last year, attack activity is likely to resume after a short pause," the colonel noted.

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook and Twitter and never miss an update!