EDF: Ukraine's warnings of a new Russian offensive must be taken seriously

Warnings from Ukrainian sources about Russia's preparation for a new major offensive this spring must be taken seriously, said Brig. Gen. Viktor Kalnitski, commander of the Estonian Military Academy.
In the past week, Russian armed forces have intensified their attacks to more than 200 per day, Kalnitski told Sunday's "Ukraina stuudio".
"The main activity is still taking place in the direction of Pokrovsk. Offensive operations are also taking place in other sectors, but on a smaller scale. For example, reconnaissance battles are taking place in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts," he explained.
He added that in Kupiansk, for instance, Ukrainians have succeeded in preventing the construction of a bridge.
"The Russians wanted to build a bridge there to bring heavy equipment to the western bank. The Ukrainians managed to thwart those attacks, but in reality, pressure is still being applied in every sector. Ukrainian forces are also conducting combat operations in Kursk and Belgorod oblasts. The aim of these operations is to draw Russian attention and exert pressure so that the Russians also have to respond in those directions," Kalnitski said.
Kalnitski said while Russian forces managed to push Ukrainian troops out of the areas they had occupied in Kursk Oblast, Ukrainian units are still present. Kyiv has not said how many of its forces are on Russian territory.
In Kursk, Ukrainian troops have performed very well, Kalnitski said. "Of course, the Russians have made major efforts in the Kursk direction, sending in their combat-capable units. A North Korean contingent is also fighting in Kursk Oblast. The Russians conducted an operation aimed at cutting off logistical connections to prevent encirclement. Ukrainians were forced to carry out an organized retreat operation."
In Pokrovsk, Ukrainian forces are still holding out well, according to the brigadier general. "The defense is holding. Of course, the Russians are constantly pushing forward. I'm not saying the Ukrainians are not retreating, but when they do, the withdrawal is organized. If they retreat from their positions, they inflict as many losses as possible on the Russian forces."
After initial talks with the United States, Russian forces have continued to attack Ukraine's energy infrastructure in violation of agreements. Kalnitski said Russian forces are targeting both energy infrastructure and civilian sites, highlighting this weekend's attacks on Kyiv and Kryvyi Rih.
"There was supposedly an agreement not to target energy infrastructure, but that never happened. The attacks are continuing," he noted.
In Kryvyi Rih, where Russia struck a restaurant with a ballistic missile, claiming Ukrainian soldiers were there with instructors. So far, 20 people, including 9 children, have died and at least 75 are injured, the Kyiv Independent reported.
"When the ballistic missile was launched, it exploded at an altitude of 100 meters and used cluster munitions. This kind of weapon is absolutely not meant for precision strikes but for hitting broad targets. That's why such missiles are detonated in the air – to cause maximum casualties. We cannot talk at all about military targets being hit," Kalnitski said.
The use of Russian strategic aviation is in decline. "If you can launch a missile or a cheap drone, there's no need to send expensive aircraft into the air," he added. However, the overall number of attacks has not decreased.
Kalnitski said these attacks cannot be used as leverage at the negotiating table because Russia has attacked civilian targets throughout the war.
"There is definitely an attempt to apply psychological pressure. And if negotiations are on the table—I believe the Russians are indeed using this as a psychological weapon to pressure Ukraine into accepting the terms that Russia wants to impose," Kalnitski said.
Ukrainian sources say Russia is preparing for a large-scale offensive that could continue throughout 2025.
Kalnitski said such warnings must be taken seriously. "Weather conditions are becoming more favorable for the Russians; it will certainly be possible to maneuver units there, and nature supports that. Another factor: the Russians have tactical operational reserves in place, and units are being replenished to full strength," he said.
Kalnitski noted that the number of mobilized personnel in Russia has increased and that they still hold superiority in artillery and armored vehicles.
"This must be taken very seriously, and we must also prepare for it," the brigadier general said.
--
Follow ERR News on Facebook and Twitter and never miss an update!
Editor: Barbara Oja, Helen Wright
Source: "Ukraina stuudio", interview by Maria-Ann Rohemäe