Political scientist: Ukraine ceasefire puts Russia in uncomfortable bind
With its ceasefire proposal, Ukraine has put Russia — which also proposed a truce — into an uncomfortable bind, because it forces Moscow to accept the offer, said political scientist Karmo Tüür.
According to Tüür, the current situation is interesting because both Russia and Ukraine have now put their own ceasefires on the table.
"There are two competing ceasefires on the table at the same time. In a strange sense, this isn't even a peace instrument but rather a war instrument — that is, warfare by other means, using the word 'ceasefire.' Moscow announces that on May 8 and 9 we agree not to shoot, because they have a parade and a holiday. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy then responded with his own initiative, saying that his ceasefire is bigger and far more important, and that it would begin already on May 6," Tüür said.
"Essentially, this puts Moscow in a very uncomfortable bind. If Moscow does not accept Ukraine's proposal, it cannot expect Ukraine to observe the ceasefire. That means that on May 9 the only hardware on Red Square could be Ukrainian drones — and that would be very embarrassing and uncomfortable," Tüür noted.
At the same time, the political scientist said that Russia's announcement of a ceasefire carries no real meaning, since it has repeatedly violated such ceasefires in the past.
He agreed that, in essence, Russia has said that there is a ceasefire on its side and that it is not fighting at that moment. Ukraine, for its part, has said that starting May 6 there will be a ceasefire, but the moment a single shot comes from Russia, exactly the same will be returned.
"Both sides have burdened it with the condition that the moment you fire, we fire back as well. And that 'moment' will come anyway. The question now is whether there is some kind of filter that allows one to decide not to respond, because we would like to maintain a ceasefire. I don't believe in that kind of thing," Tüür said.
According to the analyst, neither heavy weapons nor State Duma deputies are being allowed onto Red Square.
"How these two things are connected, I don't know exactly, but it's a very strange, embarrassing, and shameful process that is about to take place there. It's also unclear who will attend. For May 9 it has always been strongly emphasized that such and such foreign guests will come to us. So far, three neighboring countries are known — Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan — whose leaders will attend. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico made an interesting move and said that he will come to Moscow but will not take part in the parade. The rest are leaders of Abkhazia, Ossetia, and the like. The foreign guests' stand is empty, there are no State Duma deputies; presumably some veterans will be found," he said.
There is a very high probability that President Vladimir Putin will participate via video link, Tüür added.
"That's the million-dollar question. It's something the FSO — the Federal Protective Service, which is currently effectively taking over power — is trying to conceal at any cost until the last moment: where Putin is physically located. All of this is done to keep him safe," he said.
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Editor: Aleksander Krjukov, Argo Ideon
Source: ERR "Ringvaade"
