According to pollster Kantar Emor, an election coalition headed by Edgar Savisaar could score nearly 12 percent of the vote in the districts where its candidates run. This would damage the Center Party, but deputy chairwoman Kadri Simson thinks Savisaar was successful in the past because of a team that he now doesn’t have anymore.
Expert at Kantar Emor, Aivar Voog, thinks Savisaar’s list could get some 11.8 percent of the vote. The former long-time chairman of the Center Party and mayor of Tallinn has been very successful in elections, with record-breaking voter support.
This is already lower than the numbers of July, when polls indicated that Savisaar would likely have the support of 19.5 percent of the voters. The Center Party meanwhile has gone from 22 percent in July to currently 27.1 percent.
“The extreme fluctuation of the result shows the great hesitation of Center Party voters, and the difficult forecast of the proportion of final preferences,” Voog said. “The final result to a great extent depends on the length of Savisaar’s list, and the events of the weeks leading up to the elections, how Savisaar’s trial will progress, and how strong Savisaar is able to appear to the Russian-speaking voters in Tallinn,” Voog said.
He added that in other terms, the Center Party continued as the uncontested number one across Estonia, with the Reform Party in second place and the Social Democratic Party (SDE) and the Estonian Conservative People's Party (EKRE) sharing the third and fourth place. There had been no significant changes compared to the previous month.
Voog also said that the ratings of EKRE and independent election coalitions had improved in Tallinn compared to the previous month, while those of the Reform Party and SDE had decreased. “The preferences of the voters in Tallinn are becoming very volatile,” he added.
Simson: Savisaar’s candidacy in local elections still unclear
Deputy chairman of the party and Minister of Economic Affairs Kadri Simson said that it was difficult to comment on Savisaar’s election coalition and list, as it was still unclear who Savisaar’s running mates would be, and whether he himself would be a candidate on the list at all, daily Postimees wrote on Tuesday.
“There is the option that Edgar Savisaar is a candidate, but not on the self-titled list. Another option is that Savisaar’s list is in the elections, but not Savisaar himself,” Simson said.
She added that she was convinced local politics was a team game, which is why it would be difficult for Savisaar to achieve past results running by himself.
“Should Savisaar run in one district, that won’t be enough for a successful performance. I have 22 years of history in the party, and I think that there never was a time leading up to the elections when Savisaar didn’t belittle election coalitions,” Simson said.
Asked if she was following Savisaar’s trial, Simson said that she didn’t really have the time. “I know that it is going on, but I haven’t looked further than the headlines,” she said.
Suspended mayor of Tallinn and former party chairman Edgar Savisaar, on trial as part of a corruption case, announced his plan at the beginning of August to form a separate election coalition in Tallinn. Center Party MP Olga Ivanova has announced that she will run on Savisaar’s list.
Editor: Dario Cavegn