Support by electoral district split between Centre, Reform, EKRE
While December poll results saw the coalition Centre Party leading in nine of Estonia's 12 electoral districts and January numbers leading in half, by February this lead had shrunk to command of Tallinn's three electoral districts and Ida-Viru County.
As the 2019 Riigikogu elections approach and advance and online voting are already underway, support for Estonia's three biggest parties has begun to even out, painting quite a different map of possible election wins by electoral district, it appears from the results of a poll of nearly 4,700 voters conducted by Turu-uuringute AS.
For example, Jõgeva and Tartu Counties saw support for the opposition Reform Party and Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) tie at 25% [in blue on the map].
Near-ties were present in the numbers for three other electoral districts as well.
Järva and Viljandi Counties currently favour Reform at 25%, but EKRE is just behind at 24% [in yellow].
Support in Hiiu, Lääne and Saare counties was divided between EKRE at 19%, Reform at 18%, and the coalition Social Democratic Party (SDE) at 17% [in black].
A similar three-way split came up in the numbers for Võru, Valga and Põlva Counties, with EKRE leading with 26%, followed by Reform with 25% and Centre with 23%.
Reform is currently leading in Pärnu County with 33%, but Centre is not far behind at 30%.
The Centre Party has Ida-Viru County sewn up with the support of half of all voters [in green], but the Social Democrats, under the leadership of Katri Raik, are currently polling with a solid 17% as well.
Centre is also likely to win all three electoral districts in Tallinn, enjoying significant leads in Haabersti-Põhja-Tallinn-Kristiine with 39% and Central Tallinn-Lasnamäe-Pirita with 38% support. Mustamäe-Nõmme will be a closer race, where Centre is currently polling at 31%, Reform at 25% and EKRE at 21%.
Reform, meanwhile, is currently in the lead in Harju and Rapla Counties, where chairwoman Kaja Kallas is running, with 28% support. The City of Tartu is also a lock, where 26% of voters have promised to vote for them.
Less sure is their hold on Lääne-Viru County, where the major opposition party currently commands 22% of the vote, but where four rival parties are close on their heels, EKRE first among them.
Online and advance voting are currently underway in Estonia. Election day is on 3 March.
Editor: Aili Vahtla