Data made available from the Estonian Institute of Economic Research (Eesti Konjunktuuriinstituut) in January shows that by most indicators, industrial, construction, and consumer confidence rose between December 2019 and January 2020, and in some cases year-on-year (y-o-y) as well. Retail confidence declined over the same period, however.
Industrial confidence on the rise
The confidence index for industrial enterprises rose by six points, to -13 points, between December 2019 and January 2020, though the figure stood at zero in January 2019, BNS reports, quoting the Estonian Institute of Economic Research.
Meanwhile, the institute found that expectation of an increase in output volumes over the next three months also rose, by 21 points, from -24 points in December to -3 points in January, though the figure in the same month last year was 11 points.
Managers' assessments of inventories also rose, doubling to 6 points between December 2019 and January 2020, whereas it had stood at -2 points this time last year.
Managers' assessments of inventories also rose, doubling to 6 points between December 2019 and January 2020, whereas it had stood at -2 points this time last year, according to BNS.
The institute's assessment of current demand remained at -29 points in January, as it had been the previous month. In January 2019 the figure was -13 points.
Construction index also rises
The institute reported that the construction sector confidence index rose from -19 to -11 points over the change in year; in January 2019 it had been 2 points.
Construction companies' assessment of their order portfolio fell by 3 points, to -19 points, between December and January. The indicator stood at -3 points in January of last year.
Construction companies' expectation index over employee numbers in the coming three months rose from -21 points to -3 points, December to January. In January 2019, the indicator was 6 points.
Consumer confidence sees improvement
The consumer confidence indicator also rose between December and January, by one point, bringing it in line with the figure a year ago, the institute said, according to BNS.
The assessment of labor market opportunities rose by 2 points, month on month, to 9 points, compared with 3 points in January 2019.
The expectations for the country's economic situation over the next 12 months also rose, by 1 point, to 8 points in January, one less than a year ago.
Household consumer confidence also increases
Consumer assessments of their household economic outlook over the next year also rose by a point, to 7 points, between the last month of 2019 and the first of 2020; in January 2019 it stood at one point higher at 8 points.
Savings confidence also rose, according to the institute (although increased saving often goes with reduced consumer confidence-ed.). The assessment of the likelihood of a household saving money over the next 12 months rose from -25 points in December 2019, to -18 points in January, a little higher than a year ago, when the figure stood at -21 points, BNS said.
Consumer confidence is an economic indicator which measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation; the higher the confidence, the more likely consumers are to spend.
Retail confidence falls
Data in the retail sector included a fall, from 1 point in December 20198, to -4 points in January. This was one point higher than January 2019, however.
The indicator reflecting sales over the past three months rose 8 points on month, to 24 points in January, seven points higher than this time last year.
The assessment of inventories rose by 3 points, to 20 points, between December 2019 and January 2020; the same indicator had been 16 points in January 2019.
The retail sector's three-month sales forecast fell by 4 points, to -15 points in January, unchanged from January last year, BNS reported.
The service sector confidence index rose 3 points, from -6 points in December 2019, to -3 points in January 2020, again, the same level it had been this time last year.
Editor: Andrew Whyte