Ratings: Reform in the midst of major hike, Center trending downward

Prime Minister Kaja Kallas (Reform).
Prime Minister Kaja Kallas (Reform). Source: Ken Mürk/ERR

According to a recent survey conducted by pollster Norstat, the coalition-heading Reform Party is going through a major hike in support while their coalition partner Center is trending downward.

Results of the recent opinion poll, conducted by pollsters Norstat on behalf of NGO the Institute for Social Research (MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut), show Reform Party with 34.2 percent support, followed by Center at 18.9 percent and the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) at third with 18.4 percent support of voting-age Estonian residents.

Reform's support has again increased for the sixth consecutive week and has peaked 34 percent for the first time since February of 2020.

Support for the previous government's leading party Center is continuing its downward trend and has fallen 2.7 percent since the start of the year after a corruption scandal came to light, leading to the party to suddenly step down from power, handing over the reigns to Kaja Kallas' Reform.

EKRE's continuous rise in support has stopped for now after a significant bump over the last eight weeks.

The top three parties are followed by Eesti 200 at 13.4 percent, the Social Democratic Party (SDE) at 6.6 percent and Isamaa at 5.3 percent. Eesti 200's support has dropped 3.1 percentage points since the start of the year.

The coalition parties (Reform-Center) received a total 53.1 percent support in the recent survey, 30.3 percent of respondents said they support the three opposition parties (EKRE-SDE-Isamaa).

According to University of Tartu political scientist Martin Mölder, the most significant results of the recent poll show Reform's increasing support and a continuous drop in Center's and Eesti 200's.

Mölder said Eesti 200 has retained its support among young voters and voters without children. The party's recent drop in support stems mainly from a change in their voter groups, mainly among voters aged 50 and up voters with children.

"At the same time, it can be seen among EKRE supporters that there is a clear gap between younger and older voters - EKRE's support is lowest among those aged up to 34 and is highest among those aged 35 to 74. In the oldest group, those aged 75 and up, EKRE's support is also low. Generally, EKRE's recent increase in support has taken place among voters with children and it has remained low among voters without," Mölder noted.

When it comes to support for Isamaa, Mölder said recent trends show that their support gap between men and women has grown significantly. "When from the start of 2019, Isamaa's support among men and women was about the same and was statistically indistinguishable, the gap is now larger than ever in the monitored period, reaching almost 4 percentage points," the political scientist added.


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Editor: Kristjan Kallaste

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