The opposition Conservative People's Party (EKRE) continues to catch up to the ruling Reform Party, while non-parliamentary Eesti 200 is moving up again at the expense of the Social Democrats in the October Kantar Emor poll commissioned by ERR.
The Reform Party remains the most popular political force in October with support from 28 percent of voters, down one point from September.
Support for EKRE grew to 25 percent in October, helping the national conservatives to further close the gap with Reform. EKRE, the September rating of which was 23 percent, have reached 25 percent just once before – July of 2021.
The Center Party and Eesti 200 are tied on 14 percent in October, with support for the former unchanged since last month. Eesti 200 have found three points since then.
Kantar Emor survey expert Aivar Voog said that the rise of Eesti 200 constituted the biggest change in October, in tandem with the Social Democratic Party (SDE) losing three points to land on 8 percent.
"It is likely that Eesti 200 gained ground at the expense of SDE. Eesti 200's general meeting and new chairman election (Lauri Hussar – ed.) took place in the middle of the survey period media coverage of which delivered a ratings bump. The coming months will have to show whether the change is temporary or lasting," Voog said.
Isamaa clocked the lowest rating among parliamentary parties in October, dropping from 8 percent in September to 7 percent this month, which is on par with the party's result from before it was included in Kaja Kallas' second government. Support for Isamaa peaked in July (11 percent).
The Greens have lost a point since September for an October rating of 2 percent. Newcomers Parempoolsed had 1 percent of the potential vote in September and October.
Support by voter group
The lead Reform and EKRE have opened up is even greater among ethnic Estonian respondents, with the two parties' ratings on 33 percent and 26 percent respectively in the voter group.
Eesti 200 have the support of 14 percent of Estonian respondents. SDE and Center are on 8 percent each.
The Center Party remains the first choice of non-ethnic Estonian voters, while 39 percent is a far cry from the kind of domination the party used to enjoy in this voter group. EKRE is the second choice for this group with 21 percent.
Eesti 200 has 13 percent, Reform 11 percent and SDE 8 percent of the non-ethnic vote, with Isamaa forced to settle for 2 percent.
The citizens of Tallinn prefer the Reform Party (27 percent) and Center (23 percent).
16 percent of Tallinners are behind Eesti 200, 13 percent EKRE, 8 percent SDE and 6 percent Isamaa.
The ERR-commissioned survey was carried out October 13-19 in which time Kantar Emor polled 1,469 eligible citizens between the ages of 18 and 84 years. Half of respondents were interviewed over the phone and half online. The "cannot say" vote has been removed from the results to mirror potential Riigikogu elections results. People who did not have a clear preference made up 30 percent of those questioned in October (29 percent in September).
Editor: Marcus Turovski