A survey conducted by Kantar Emor aimed to determine which parties people in Estonia would consider voting for. With participants able to choose more than one party, the results not only revealed overlaps in voter groups, but also shed light on which parties appear most likely to win or lose the votes of those who have several preferences.
According to the survey Reform, Eesti 200 and SDE voters may be likely to switch allegiances between the three parties. EKRE voters on the other hand are fiercely loyal to the party, with just over a quarter likely to consider Isamaa as an alternative if necessary.
Reform voters most often mention Eesti 200 as their preferred alternative, with 33 percent surveyed saying they also consider voting for the party led by Lauri Hussar. A sizeable 28 percent of Reform supporters would consider voting for the Social Democrats if they had to make a second choice. In contrast, only four percent of Reform voters would consider giving their vote to EKRE, even if picking Reform was not an option.
EKRE voters are the most loyal according to the survey, with most not even considering the possibility of voting for another party. However, 27 percent of EKRE supporters would consider choosing Isamaa under certain conditions.
Only 12 percent of EKRE voters would choose to vote for Center and 4 percent for Reform, if they had to opt for a second party.
When it comes to Eesti 200, most voters put Reform (38 percent) as their second choice, though a further 33 percent suggested they would pick the SDE. Almost a quarter (24 percent) Eesti 200 voters would take the Estonian Greens as their second pick.
According to the survey, Center voters are also reasonably loyal, with only 18 percent saying they would consider voting for the SDE, 17 percent prepared to vote for EKRE and a further 10 percent open to the idea of Isamaa if they had to choose a second party.
44 percent of SDE voters would pick Eesti 200 as their second choice party, while 40 percent would opt for Reform. Over a third of SDE voters (34 percent) said they would consider voting for the Greens.
For Isamaa voters, the second choice is most often Reform (20 percent), with 12 percent saying they would opt for the SDE and 11 percent favoring EKRE.
Almost half of Estonian Greens' supporters said the SDE would be their preferred second choice, while 39 percent would give their vote to Eesti 200.
According to the survey, the clear alternative for Parempoolsed (right-wingers) voters was Eesti 200 (75 percent).
Editor: Michael Cole