Grosberg: Russia likely to launch new wave of mobilization in near future

Col. Margo Grosberg.
Col. Margo Grosberg. Source: Ken Mürk/ERR

Russia is likely to initiate a new mobilization in the near future, Col. Margo Grosberg said. According to him, in nine months of battle in Bakhmut Russia has lost 40,000 men.

When the Ukrainian counteroffensive starts is the most pressing issue, Grosberg said. "It is certainly the sort of thing they would try to conceal until the last minute, since the most crucial tactic in any war or successful battle is an unexpected move."

However, he did say that preparations for the offensive are evident. In recent weeks, the Ukrainian armed forces have specifically attacked the command and logistical units of the Russian Federation's armed forces in order to obtain a potentially advantageous position for launching this offensive. The equipment and supplies that would slow down the offensive the most, including air defense, artillery and tanks, have been targeted," Grosberg said.

He said that attacks on logistical and command and control locations beyond the frontlines could increase in the coming days.

According to Grosberg, the number of attacks by the Russian armed forces has been steadily declining, particularly in the month of May.

"The units of the Russian Federation are undergoing reorganization and replacement. Those units that have been stationed on the border for several months are being replaced by newer, resupplied units, and losses are being reduced in preparation for the anticipated offensive. Similarly, offensive operations have been conducted less frequently as defensive preparations have been prioritized," Grosberg said.

According to Grosberg, the one-to-one balance of forces on the front is now evident, as Russia has been able to compensate for losses with its September mobilization, but "in order to conduct a successful offensive, they would need three times the advantage on the attacking side," he said.

Grosberg said that the April-announced recruitment campaign in Russia has not been an enormous success.

"Taking into consideration all these nuances, there is a very high probability that a similar mobilization wave will be initiated as it was in September. Such a thing is unquestionably required for the Russian Federation to attain its goals," Grosberg said.

Wagner Group has begun to withdraw from Bakhmut and transfer it over to the military. "According to Prigozhin's own statements, Wagner is required to vacate Bakhmut by June 5," Grosberg explained, adding that the first units have begun to leave the area.

"During this nine-month battle of Bakhmut, the Russian Federation lost about 40,000 men. These are permanent casualties: dead, missing or critically wounded," Grosberg said.


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Editor: Aleksander Krjukov, Kristina Kersa

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