Grosberg: Battles in Ukraine could pick up in the next few weeks

Col. Margo Grosberg.
Col. Margo Grosberg. Source: Ken Mürk/ERR

Battles might pick up in the coming weeks in Ukraine, while the anticipated Ukrainian offensive might not be the only such manifestation, Col. Margo Grosberg said.

"Similarly to April-May 2022, military activity is set to become more intensive in the coming weeks," Grosberg suggested at a briefing held at the Ministry of Defense on Friday.

The colonel, who heads up the Estonian Defense Forces Intelligence Center, said that the spring has been rainier than usual in Ukraine, meaning that the ground is only now beginning to dry, allowing heavy machinery to be moved off roads. The trees are also beginning to leaf, which provides better cover for preparing and launching offensives.

Russia has started repositioning its front line troops in anticipation of a potential Ukrainian offensive, Grosberg said. Russia still holds the initiative on the various front lines today. Another goal of Russian troops is to keep the Ukrainians from gathering and moving their forces to prepare for an offensive.

While experts agree Russia does not currently have the capacity for another massive onslaught, it can still attack in some sectors, Grosberg suggested, pointing out that Russian has lost over 2,000 tanks and a lot of other armored vehicles for a total of around 10,000 units of machinery.

The colonel said that Russia is losing more pieces of machinery than it can replace through manufacturing, while its warehouses hold enough old equipment to keep the war going at least until the end of this year.

Grosberg suggested that Russia will continue trying to advance on Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdivka and Marinka despite human casualties, and that it has managed to conquer three-quarters of Bakhmut.

In summary, there is nothing to suggest a quick and short end to the war, Grosberg said.


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Editor: Marcus Turovski

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