The estimated cost of the study comes to €120,000, plus VAT.

The study's initial tasking rubric says recent years, the status of a steady state has changed, with crisis being eclipsed by crisis before recovery for the initial crisis has been reached.

However, the last two of these, Covid and the war in Ukraine, have shown up several shortcomings in crisis response times, and in scope for potential aid measures.

The directive initiating the study was signed by Ulla Saar, undersecretary at the Ministry of Finance, stipulates that the implementation study "Scenarios for ensuring the resilience of the Estonian economy and increasing crisis preparedness" should help understand how to better cope with the above changes, to construct better preparedness for future crises and to strengthen social and economic resilience.

"Researchers into the future have found that in order to increase security, three capabilities are of critical importance: Preventive action, the ability to change, and agility. The question from the state's point of view is how to be able to bolster these capabilities and to ensure that the ability to respond to crises improves," the ministry says.

With the help of the study results the state will be able to, if necessary, amend legislation, create financial buffers or take other preemptive actions in order to be better prepared for potential future crises. The scenarios and intervention strategies developed during the course of the research will be rehearsed out with various stakeholders.

These strategies will include crisis mitigation activities, risk assessments into the timing of state intervention, metrics to assess the impact of that intervention, and also potential constraints which could hinder intervention.

"It is important that the scenarios brought out deal with different economic areas – their possible developments and impacts, and also look at the potential broader social impact and development, due to the nature of the corresponding possible scenario and the type of potential future crisis," the source task goes on.

The study must be conducted in accordance with basic conditions of research and development. It will be divided into three phases, and its final report must also include policy recommendations which would be actionable and help the ministry make evidence-based choices.

The study is financed by the Ministry of Finance with an estimated cost excluding VAT of €120,000.

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