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Party ratings: Isamaa support rises to 27 percent

Isamaa congress in Viljandi, November 2023.
Isamaa congress in Viljandi, November 2023. Source: Olev Kenk/ERR

Opposition party Isamaa saw its rating rise to 27 percent this week according to one pollster. This increase, of nearly one percentage point, was the only significant change in support on week for any of Estonia's six represented parties.

The survey was conducted by Norstat on behalf of conservative think-tank the Institute of Societal Studies (MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut).

Norstat conducts its poll on a weekly basis, aggregating the results over a four-week period.

Support for the three opposition parties combined (Isamaa, the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) and the Center Party) comes to 59.4 percent, almost the same level as the actual Riigikogu representation (60 out of 101 seats) of the three coalition parties – the Reform Party, Eesti 200 and the Social Democrats (SDE).

By party, as noted Isamaa, which won eight Riigikogu seats at the March election, picked up 27.1 percent of support this week according to Norstat, a full 10 percentage points ahead of the prime minister's party, Reform, which has 37 seats.

In between those two parties lies EKRE, which polled at 22 percent (EKRE has 17 seats).

Isamaa's support continues to rise – by 0.9 percentage points on the week, just as Reform's is still falling, albeit at a lower rate (0.5 percentage points on week).

Changes in support for the remaining parties over the week were less significant; Center is in fourth place on 13.2 percent (16 seats won in March, though two MPs have defected to Isamaa since then), SDE's level of 10.3 percent is more comparable with its number of seats (nine).

Eesti 200 continues to bump along the bottom at 5.9 percent (compared with 14 seats), 0.9 percentage points above the minimum vote required to win seats in any electoral district in any type of direct election in Estonia.

Of the main non-parliamentary parties, Parempoolsed picked up 2 percent of support this week, the level required in an election to qualify for state support (which it indeed accomplished in March), while the Estonian Greens (Rohelised) polled at 1.4 percent.

The line graph below illustrates changes in party support levels since Norstat started compiling its surveys, in early 2019. (Key: Yellow = Reform, green = Center, black = EKRE, royal blue = Isamaa, red = SDE, light blue = Eesti 200, light green = Estonian Greens, orange = Parempoolsed).

The tables below that show the four-week aggregate figures (Erakondade toetusprotsent 4 nädala koondtulemused) and weekly figures (Iganädalased tulemused) for each party also (Key: Eesti Keskerakond = Center Party; Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond = EKRE; Eesti Reformierakond = Reform; Sotisiaaldemokraatlik Erakond = SDE; Erakond Eesti Rohelised = Greens; Eesti Vabaerakond = Free Party (now defunct); Elurikkuse Erakond = Richness of Life; Muu = Other parties).

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Editor: Andrew Whyte, Mait Ots

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