Speaking to ETV current affairs show "Esimene stuudio" in a full and frank interview given Thursday, Merilo said his new role includes heading off potential war here.

Merilo noted that he the question has for some time now not been whether war will come to Estonia, but when, meaning Estonia must be prepared for that eventuality.

He said: "We also know, by taking a look at history and also at certain political and economic developments that we are likely moving towards a further escalation of the major war that is already ongoing."

"In this sense, we must not deceive ourselves and say that it will never happen. Rather, we should get used to the fact that of its coming to pass; the question is when, and on preparations on mitigating that when that moment comes," he said.

Beyond that, there is little point marking time on when conflict might start.

"The fact is: The war in Ukraine has been going on for 10 years now, and two years ago it escalated to the next phase, the full-scale attack, in which hundreds of thousands of people have probably died on both sides," Col. Merilo said.

"The war continues at full pace. In that way, a war is really under way while for us a crisis is already ongoing. The question is what phase this crisis will evolve into next. There is no point in burying your head in the sand, saying that maybe a war will start three years from now, as the war is already going on now," he went on.

"Moreover Russia, if it has plans of directing its military aggression in other directions, most probably won't pause to give us time to prepare during these intervening years."

Were Russia's military to initiate a strike on Estonia, mitigating the effects of this within Estonia's territory itself is needed, the new commander went on, with reference to one of the most prominent aspects to the two year-long full-scale invasion of Ukraine: Artillery.

"Based on military principles, we will lose if we fight solely against those who cross the border. This is because the artillery that could destroy us is located inside Russian territory. So we must immediately take the effects as deep [into enemy territory] as possible. Just as we have seen in Ukraine, once they had obtained the means, then the situation on the battlefield changed, and in favor of Ukraine," he outlined.

The corollary to this is that, in Merilo's opinion, western countries providing weaponry and munitions to Ukraine on the proviso that these could only be deployed inside Ukraine's borders was the wrong decision.

"From a military point of view, this was rank stupidity. The imposition of a restriction like that also reaped some harsh dividends, and is right now also one of the reasons why Ukraine has found itself back on the defensive, and trying to fend off another Russian counter-offensive," the officer continued, speaking just days after his Ukrainian counterpart-to-be, Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, decided to withdraw forces from the town of Avdiivka, near Donetsk, a town which had been encircled not only for the past two years, but had held out for much of the time since 2014.

"Perhaps putting in place a restriction like this is completely wrong from a military point of view, it should not have been put in place. And if the fear was only to avoid any escalation, then as we can see, that, too, has not been vindicated.

"So in short I think that this restriction, put in at a political level, was completely wrong-headed," the colonel added.

Merilo: Defense spending must tally with future likely scenarios

Estonia's defense spending should be based on likely future outcomes, Col. Merilo went on.

"This needs to be analyzed further, not only to examine future threats, but also to define what our future actually is. This future must not be dictated by danger, however. Danger is only one of several factors that can prevent us from reaching that future. This is what we need to look at; if the threats are such that if we don't add money to strengthen the defense, then we won't have a future to speak of, then we will have to place this money into defense spending and do the other things that are needed. In this respect, the defense budget is a dynamic thing." he said.

"I wouldn't set a limit in terms of percentages, but you have to look at what literally lies within our people's capabilities to put into national defense at one point; rather we should look at what the capabilities that we need to develop rapidly are; those without which we are not capable of heading off a war."

Estonia at the same time should not start to mirror any putative enemy's military capabilities in its defense spending, Merilo argued. To do so would make Estonia an easy target for that enemy. Calculating how victory might be attained in any initial engagements is required, though, he added.

"The defense budget is a matter for negotiation, but it seems to me at the moment that it is inevitably necessary to boost that in the near future," he said.

According to Merilo, points at which the defense budget can be boosted further do exist

"Perhaps we can leave undone some of those things which currently are done in too, as it were, 'flashy' a manner. Perhaps we construct some buildings where the main focus is on beauty and grace, yet we then perhaps sacrifice some of their functionality. Maybe we should cut back a little on these gaudier things, and use this money in an 'Estonian way,' i.e. rationally, and carry out the things which are functionally valuable," he gave as an example.

In any case, the state already has various military capabilities in the works, and according to Merilo, improvements are still needed across all areas.

"We need to further bolster our capabilities in all military areas, so that we can still deliver lethalities /.../ as soon as any aggressive actions may begin, on to Russian territory. It is as simple as that," he said.

While some military experts believe that Estonia needs to purchase armor including tanks, others believe that other capabilities are needed, and more rapidly. Merilo said he agrees with the latter line.

"Fortunately, I have studied at Finland's national defense academy and graduated from its tank school, so I know full well what a tank is, and even more then that, I know what a Russian tank is, those they are using in trying to conquer Ukraine at present. You need not fear armor, though you must respect it, but in any case it's certainly not a commodity that we either have or definitely need, today. We already have allied heavy tanks within the 1st Infantry Brigade structure today.

"A tank is clearly purely a melee weapon platform, with a firing range of up to three kilometers," he continued.

Allied main battle tanks to have already been deployed in Estonia include French Leclercs and British Challenger 2s.

"Second, a tank battalion costs about €900 million, certainly a lot of money, which we could use to purchase other capabilities that are needed more urgently," he went on.

Ultimately, Col. Merilo said, Estonia must be technologically superior to any potential enemy. "We have to go with quality versus quantity," he summed up.

Col. Andrus Merilo was formally appointed next EDF commander-in-chief, replacing Gen. Martin Herem who is stepping down from his extended term at the end of June. In the intervening time, Merilo will serve as Herem's second-in-command, and is to be made up to Brigadier General by the president today, Friday.

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