The Japanese government-funded position aims to increase understanding between Tokyo and the Baltics. Brussels-based Atanassova-Cornelis is an expert on Japanese foreign, security and defense policy and security and strategic issues in Asia and the Indo-Pacific region. She took up the role in October.

In a recent interview with ERR News, the research fellow discussed Japan's view on regional defense and security issues, its engagement with the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, how the war has reshaped Japan's security strategy, and European-Japanese relations.

"Maybe some Estonian people or people in Europe think, 'Oh, Japan is so far away'. But in the 21st century, security threats are not limited to one territory, one state or one country," Atanassova-Cornelis said.

As Russia's neighbors, Estonia and Japan have common concerns about its activities. The launching of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 led to changes in defense policy on both sides of the world. Since then, Tokyo has sought to strengthen pre-existing ties with the EU and NATO, and by extension Estonia as a member of both alliances.

There are no longer discussions about whether Japan and Europe should cooperate, only how, the researcher said. 

Japan and the war in Ukraine

After the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Japan firmly aligned itself with the EU and U.S, as well as South Korea and Australia, the only other countries in the Asia-Pacific region that support Ukraine, Atanassova-Cornelis said.

The situation is felt deeply in Japan, as the country has a long-running territorial dispute with Russia. "Japan and Ukraine can be seen as sharing a common concern that Russia has taken part of Ukraine's territory, but also Russia is controlling part of Japanese territory," she said.

Japanese politicians' messaging echoes European leaders. They clearly state that Russia's aggression is a threat to the rules-based international order – especially if it wins the war. This could lead to other countries using the same tactics.

"[Prime Minister Fumio] Kishida said what's happening in Ukraine today can happen in any other region including East Asia in the future. So very clear parallels have been drawn," the researcher said.

Japan cannot directly send weapons to countries at war due to its constitution, but it has applied sanctions to Russia and sent humanitarian aid to Ukraine. In February, it hosted an economic growth and reconstruction conference that signed over 50 cooperation agreements in areas such as agriculture, manufacturing, technology and education to strengthen relations. Tokyo also pledged US$106 million to Ukraine for rebuilding and demining projects.

"Japan sees itself as an important player, a promoter of regional peace and stability in Europe," Atanassova-Cornelis said. "From the Japanese perspective, that support for Ukraine is investing in the reconstruction of the Ukrainian nation and promoting Europe and they think by extension global stability."

Changing defense strategy

The researcher said the war has made Japan take a harder stance against Russia in its security policy. There were "striking changes" between its 2013 and 2022 Russia strategies. All references suggesting Japan should seek to cooperate with Russia have now been removed.

"While, in my view, Russia is not perceived as a direct threat to Japan in the way Estonia or Europe perceive it to be, Japanese perspectives on the war in Ukraine are linking it to the threat to the global rules-based order," she said. "That clearly brings in a global dimension into what may be perceived by some Asian countries, or even people in Japan, as a local war."

One area where big changes have occurred since 2022, is in the cyber domain.

Atanassova-Cornelis called Japan a "latecomer" in terms of cyber defense but said the full-scale invasion of Ukraine changed the government's mind. Tokyo expanded its national security definition in April 2022 to include cyber for the first time.

"The Ukraine war has intensified the thinking that Japan also has to take certain preparations in order to deal with similar situations in Japan and Asia," the researcher said. "And now they want to introduce active cyber defense to eliminate in advance possibilities of serious cyber attacks."

Taiwan is regularly hit with cyberattacks by China, and Tokyo thinks any future conflict will likely involve cyber and hybrid warfare. If Japan is prepared by then, it can share missions and information with the U.S. and fight from some point in cyberspace, she said.

"[It will] be prepared for this different type of war that may happen there, similar to what we see here in Europe happening," Atanassova-Cornelis said.

Last year, Japan joined the NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence (CCDCOE), which is based in Tallinn.

A statement from Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada published at the time said "strengthening response capabilities" in the cyber domain is one of Japan's "top priorities".

Japanese-Russian relations

Atanassova-Cornelis described the Japanese-Russian relations, even before 2022, as "very complex" and "rooted in mutual strategic distrust due to historical, territorial, geopolitical issues".

Due to territorial disputes, the two countries never signed a peace treaty after World War II and the economic relationship has not always been successful.

Tokyo has been told to drop territorial claims over four islands it claims as its Northern Territories if it wants a peace treaty with Moscow. Russia has increasingly militarized the area over the last decade, but there are also reports that Moscow has recently removed some military equipment and sent it to Ukraine. The researcher said the territorial dispute has essentially been "frozen" between the countries since 2020.

During Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's time in office (2012-2020) several summits were held to improve relations and solve the dispute. As a result of Abe's policies, Atanassova-Cornelis said the response to the annexation of Crimea in 2014 was "softer" than the European Union's. But now, there has been a "complete reversal."

On the economic front: "The Japanese have been disappointed," Atanassova-Cornelis said. Promised joint projects in the Russian Far East have "not lived up to expectations."

However, as Japan imports 90 percent of its resources, it also faces a "dilemma." Historically, Russia has been an important source of liquefied natural gas (LNG) for Japan, but it is now quickly trying to diversify.

"So Japan is in a very, very difficult position finding itself trying to manage all these relationships," the researcher explained.

Developing relationship between Russia and China

"This is a serious issue. This is where I would say Japan and many European countries, the EU, Baltic countries, Nordic countries generally do converge: the Sino-Russian rapprochement on alignment," Atanassova-Cornelis said.

Japan perceives China as a "concern" rather than a "threat" and Tokyo is concerned about China's maritime security, territorial issues, militarization, diplomatic stance and general role in global governance, she outlined. The most important issue is China-Russia military cooperation as drills are held close to its territory.

But the war in Ukraine, and Russia and China's deepening ties have added a "new element" to how Tokyo thinks about Beijing, the researcher said.

"Now China is seen as a supporter of Russia with direct implications for European security, which means, from the Japanese perspective, that Chinese policies now have a serious impact on the security of both regions, Europe and Asia-Pacific," Atanassova-Cornelis said. "The thinking in Japan is that you have this indivisibility of security things happening in Europe, the dynamics have implications in Asia and vice versa."

The emergence of an "anti-Western bloc" of countries including Russia, China, and countries from the "global south" is also worrying Tokyo, she said. While Europe has a unified view of Russia, in the Asia-Pacific region only South Korea, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand have condemned the invasion of Ukraine.

"Indonesia, Southeast Asian countries, India for example, they have not joined the Western European perspectives, some of them continue to maintain important security ties and import weapons, such as Vietnam and Indonesia, from Russia," Atanassova-Cornelis said.

Japan, South Korea and Australia are concerned about the "intensifying cooperation" between Russia, North Korea and China and what this means for the global rules-based order, she added.

Taiwan

Japan has noticed the "dramatically" deteriorating situation between Taiwan and China and is wondering what its own, and the U.S.', role in a possible future conflict might be.

Tokyo is also clearly making military contingency plans. "There are certain preparations for how would that military situation evolve, what would be expected of Japan, and how would Japan have to respond," the researcher said.

The U.S.-Japan alliance has strengthened in recent years but the country's constitution restricts its ability to send troops abroad.

"But if, God forbid, there were to be war in the Taiwan Strait and the U.S. got involved, there would be an expectation on the part of Japan to provide support to the U.S.," Atanassova-Cornelis said.

"So that would have great implications obviously to Japanese security and, in a way, testing the Japan alliance if Japan were not to provide support that would have negative implications."

NATO cooperation deepening

On a research trip at the end of last year in Japan, Atanassova-Cornelis discussed the prospect of NATO opening an office in Tokyo. Currently, the Danish Embassy acts as a point of contact for cooperation with the Alliance.

She believes plans are still on the table, even if they are not moving fast.

Supporters believe one benefit would be NATO seeing the situation in the Indo-Pacific through a "Japanese lens."

"So obviously that will bring important strategic advantage for Japan because Japan will influence NATO's understanding of the security and any subsequent possible decisions," the researcher said.

The country already has an ambassador to the alliance in Brussels and cooperation was established around a decade ago with the Japan-NATO Individual Partnership and Cooperation Program.

During a visit to Japan in January 2023, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said: "No NATO partner is closer or more capable than Japan." He highlighted common concerns the alliance and Tokyo share over China, Russia, and North Korea.

Even if the Tokyo office does not materialize, cooperation is deepening on issues such as cyberdefense, emerging and disruptive technologies, space, maritime security and artificial intelligence. Previously, cooperation has been connected to post-conflict measures, she said, highlighting the earthquake in southern Turkey in 2023 as one example.  

"It's interesting that even without an office, it's very clear that there is a certain shift, in my view, in the way Japan and NATO think about their cooperation. Deterrence, in my view, is becoming quite prominent in the thinking of NATO strategists and Japanese strategists on how they should cooperate. And obviously, China and Russia are absolutely critical in that regard," she told ERR News. 

Atanassova-Cornelis said the full-scale invasion of Ukraine has acted as an "accelerator" for pre-existing activities between Japan, NATO and the EU.

"But it accelerated ongoing trends in terms of thinking that we have to bring together the Indo-Pacific security theater and Euro-Atlantic theater, that they're interlinked, we cannot separate them. And we have to identify who are our partners, who are the like-minded countries, what are the shared challenges, what can we do together to promote security in our respective regions and through that global security as well," she said. 

Japan and EU relations

Japan and the EU have a longstanding relationship and signed a strategic partnership agreement and a free trade agreement in 2018.

Cooperation also exists on security issues such as non-traditional security challenges ranging from environmental issues, to development, and conflict prevention. In recent years this has extended to threats in new domains, in particular cyber, supply chain security and disinformation.

In January, the EU decided to negotiate a security and defense partnership with Japan, which elevates their relationship to a "higher level."

"It's very clear that concerns about China and Russia are quite prominent, they are very important drivers in that decision," Atanassova-Cornelis said. "This kind of move to develop the security and defense aspect of Japan-EU relations in my view, very, very, very significant."

The research fellow said there are many ways to develop ties between Estonia and Japan such as in the diplomatic, economic, and cultural sectors. A big emphasis could also be placed on the younger generation with education exchanges.

In March, both the Minister of Foreign Affairs Margus Tsahkna (Eesti 200) and head of the Estonian Defense Forces Gen. Martin Herem officially visited Japan on separate occasions. The minister also traveled with a business delegation.

Balticconnector and Newnew Polar Bear

Atanassova-Cornelis said, that while she is not following the story closely, she is not optimistic that Estonia and Finland will find the answers they seek over the Balticconnector incident from China.

In October, the Hong Kong-flagged Newnew Polar Bear's anchor broke the gas pipeline between Estonia and Finland, as well as several communication cables. Both countries have approached Chinese officials for information.

However, for Beijing, the issue may be conflated with its promoted narrative that the U.S. is trying to contain China as a global and regional power, which it believes it deserves based on its civilization, history and achievements, Atanassova-Cornelis said.

China confirms its own suspicions when looking at NATO's partnerships with Japan, Korea and New Zealand.

"My assessment, looking at China's thinking, is that they are all framed within this anti-China coalition building. Where the U.S., does whatever it takes to undermine China's role and regional global influence," she said.

"So, my assessment is that China will absolutely not engage in any discussions, let alone an investigation," the researcher added.

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