The hope created by the end of the Cold War of major wars being a thing of the past also changed the defense industry, Saar said. Instead, countries wanted to procure and stockpile small quantities of powerful but expensive weapons.

"Weapons procurements for Afghanistan or other low-intensity conflicts require less stock. These hugely expensive weapon systems provide a battlefield advantage, while the reason countries can afford them is that they don't need to fight conventional wars. They just buy a handful, knowing that they'll lose one or two systems during a rotation. Countries can afford it," the head of RKIK explained.

But this changed after Russia launched a full-scale war against Ukraine. Winning a war like that takes a lot of ammunition, while such quantities also mean completely different prices.

"While a small arms cartridge may only cost a few dozen cents, we buy tens of millions of them," Saar said.

In Ukraine, there are daily losses of weapon systems that used to be deployed once in a blue moon. "This is no longer feasible," the expert noted.

In other words, there needs to be a new balance – we must rethink how many expensive weapons we can afford while stockpiling cheap munitions in colossal quantities. It has led to a shift in thinking also among defense contractors.

"'Affordable mass' is a real buzzword now," Saar remarked.

He said that all weapons manufacturers are thinking about how to bring to market cheaper weapon systems and make existing ones cheaper and faster to produce.

"I'm quite convinced that there will be a kind of light revolution regarding several types of weapons in the next three, four, five or ten years. There will be new weapon systems that are relatively cheaper or those that perform the same tasks as existing ones while meeting less stringent requirements."

Soldier's boots available at market prices, while wrenches needed to maintain howitzers are not

While soldiers joke that green is the most expensive kind of paint, things meant for the military's use aren't always more expensive. For example, the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) pays €75 for a pair of soldier's boots, €15 for gloves and €100 for a field uniform. Such items are manufactured similarly to civilian consumables.

"A part of military equipment is off-the-shelf and not made to order. Or if it is made to order, the production volumes are on an industrial scale. The prices are relatively cheaper and delivery times shorter," Saar said, adding that things made to order and to the EDF's specifications are the most expensive.

Goods meant for the EDF must be durable, able to withstand the rigors of war and not pose a threat to EDF personnel.

"Let us consider howitzers for example – there are very strict criteria in place. We do not want our child or brother to be caught in a mechanism due to incorrect clearance in systems or something like that. Safety and reliability requirements are very strict," Saar explained.

Military products usually undergo much more rigorous testing than civilian ones, but that also adds to their price. The Korean K9 Thunder self-propelled howitzers used by the EDF aren't just good guns, they're also relatively cheap. But a specialized wrench needed for servicing these machines can still cost €900.

"If we consider that Volkswagen manufactures several million cars annually, only around a thousand K9s have been manufactured," Saar said, adding that while a lot of parts are interchangeable with other weapon systems, every platform also has particular components built only for that system. "They are expensive because they are made in very small quantities."

Smart missiles and shells hugely costly

Estonia has been buying a lot of ammunition in recent years. In very broad strokes, it can be said that an ordinary small arms cartridge costs a few dozen cents, while a shell, rocket or mine packed with explosives already costs thousands.

Missiles and shells that are guided by electronics and can accurately hit targets far away cost tens or even hundreds of thousands of euros.

Saar gave the examples of the Javelin, Spike and Mistral missiles all of which cost hundreds of thousands of euros.

These are examples of smart missiles Estonia has procured, while more capable systems cost more still. For example, medium-range air defense missiles Estonia is in the process of procuring can cost over a million euros per piece. A missile costing hundreds of thousands of euros can only bring down low-flying planes, helicopters and drones.

"A Patriot [long-range air defense] missile costs several million euros, and annual production volume is minute," Saar said, clarifying that total annual production has perhaps grown to a few thousand units from a few hundred for these missiles. "We are dealing with immensely complicated systems. We recently saw an Arrow 3 [Israeli ballistic missile defense system] hit a ballistic missile outside the Earth's atmosphere, reportedly at least. The technological complexity of doing something like that is immense, and such things cost a lot of money," the RKIK director said.

Estonia cannot afford Israel's best missiles and cannot ensure for itself the same level of protection. But Saar said that the threat Estonia faces is no less serious than what Israel or South Korea have to contend with, which is why it would be sensible to emulate those countries' defense investments.

"The level of [defense] spending and the balance of technology versus mass is up to military planners," he said.

If the main value of defense investments is seen as a guarantee for Estonia's continued freedom, Saar said that contributing more to defense could even yield economic benefit.

"It is certainly possible, in the conditions of high domestic demand, to develop weapon systems that can be marketed later on. Just as it is sensible to attach to the defense sector support activities that are more sensible when handled on location, and which is already being done," he said.

According to Saar, there are several examples of Estonian companies servicing weapon systems or retrofitting them to better meet local conditions.

"Our procurement policy today is built on competition and maximizing returns on investment. This means that we buy things we want to contribute as much to defensive capacity per euro spent as possible. It is why we do not pay more just to have something made in Estonia. But this may change in the future," Saar noted.

To what extent local manufacturing and products are preferred depends on the decisions of the EDF and politicians.

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