EDF chief: Estonia's defense spending could rise to 5% of GDP in coming years

Defense spending should rise to 5 percent of GDP in the coming years, Gen. Martin Herem, head of the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) said on Monday. This would enable Estonia to buy €1.5 billion worth of ammunition to deter Russia or destroy its infrastructure if it attacks.
Herem, who will step down in June, said percentages can be too general and the EDF could instead specify the exact amount of funding needed in the coming years.
"In the next few years, the defense budget should be significantly higher than it is now, and then it can be a bit lower again, because we know how much goes to procurement and how much goes to maintenance. It should not be 5 percent for the next 10 years, maybe 5 percent for the next two years and then a little lower," he told Vikeraadio's "Välistund", adding this is not just a question of asking for extra money, but "a specifically operationalized need".
Herem stressed the question is how much time Estonia has.
"When Russia comes out of Ukraine, it will take a few years to prepare. I think we may not have more than three years. We have done the calculations, but we are 1.5 billion munitions short," said Herem.
It is already known how many Russian forces could be sent to Estonia and how to stop them quickly, the general said.
"It is not Estonia alone, it is us together with our allies, but we have to spend our share in advance. For ammunition it would be 1.5 billion. It means fighting a war where most of the targets are destroyed not in contact with us, but further away. And this is where the Ukrainians are struggling today. They can only destroy those enemies with whom they are nose to nose," Herem said.

Kusti Salm, the Ministry of Defense's permanent secretary, added €1.5 billion is the minimum needed.
Salm explained that if the share of defense spending is three percent of GDP, then it is roughly 9-10 percent of the state budget.
"The spring forecast means that over the next four years we will have €170 million less than we had before. It is now up to the government to decide whether and how to deal with this figure," said Salm.
He said, that when it comes to national defense, we are talking about large percentages, but nominally, the amounts are very small.
"In nominal numbers, it is called a small and medium-sized enterprise, which we put on the defensive. The United States spends the amount of money we put into national defense each year in less time than it takes to fly from Tallinn to Washington by plane," said Salm.

Last month, while on a visit to Japan, Herem said Estonia could double its defense spending.
In January, Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur (Reform) said there needs to be a "reasonable limit" for defense spending.
In 2024, Estonia will spend 3.2 percent of its GDP on defense. Politicians have said it wll stay above 3 percent in the coming years.
While budget cuts are forecast next year, politicians said they are in favor of sparing defense.
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Editor: Helen Wright