The decision of procuring new wheeled self-propelled howitzers for the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) has already been made, said Ramil Lipp, head of the weaponry category at the Estonian Center for Defense Investments (RKIK).

Wheeled systems are faster but have less armor protection that Estonia's existing K9 Thunder self-propelled guns. Wheeled SPGs should be able to fire faster and move before the enemy has the chance to fire back. But their biggest advantage is that they handle much like a large truck when driving on road surfaces.

"Now, if we need to move a gun, let's say, from Valga to Pärnu, you're not just going to drive a tracked SPG down a highway. You likely have to put it on a trailer instead. But a wheeled self-propelled howitzer can go where it likes under its own steam," Lipp noted.

This would allow the EDF to quickly move SPGs where it needs them. Next, RKIK will have to determine which systems to procure. The best-known such systems offered are the French CAESAR, Israeli ATMOS, Sweden's Archer or Slovakia's Zuzana, while there are others.

"India also seems to be manufacturing what looks like an interesting system. Turkey will soon have two different systems ready for production. The first machines have rolled off the assembly line," Lipp said.

He added that the systems are similar in broad strokes, also as concerns their cost.

"Such systems cost a few million. But even if it is the same ballpark, a price difference of a million [euros] is considerable."

Many manufacturers are offering relatively short delivery times. "Delivery times are between one and five years," the RKIK representative said.

One of the differences between the systems on offer is how many wheels they have.

"Whether it's a 6x6 or an 8x8 vehicle. The former may be lighter and [faster and more flexible] as a result."

Lipp said that RKIK will be ready to declare the tender in six months to a year. The criteria based on which the new systems will be evaluated have not been decided yet, while delivery time will probably play a significant role.

Similar tender caused political scandal in Denmark

Denmark said last January it would divert all 19 CAESAR self-propelled guns it procured from France to Ukraine before they reached Denmark. It quickly bought Israeli ATMOS SPGs as a replacement.

Danish news portal Atinget wrote last February the decision was hurried. A few days after the decision to send the systems straight to Ukraine, Danish officials visited Israeli arms manufacturer Elbit Systems, and a contract for new SPGs was signed within the week. Danish MPs have suggested that they were visiting Danish troops in Estonia at the time and the decision was made going over their heads.

Adding to the intrigue is that then Danish Defense Minister Jakob Ellebann-Jensen may have lied to a parliamentary committee about the timeline, saying that the Israeli manufacturer wants confirmation by the end of January. This supposed deadline was just six days away at the time. In truth, Elbit Systems was willing to wait until early June. French manufacturer Nexter was not approached for a new bid.

The decision may have been hurried because Elbit Systems had offered the Danes its ATMOS system also back in 2015. But after the manufacturer's winning bid, the Danish government decided against procuring SPGs from Israel. Buying Israeli-made weapons is a painful topic in Denmark as the same weapons have been used in Gaza and the West Bank, Atinget wrote.

Elbit Systems took Denmark to court in 2017. In January last year, Danish officials headed to Israel in hopes of finally putting the case to bed. They returned with an offer for new SPGs. A day before the Danish official responsible for the procurement recommended buying Israeli systems, Elbit Systems dropped its claim. Even though the Danish government denies a connection between the artillery procurement and the claim going away, Atinget reported that the same official was in charge of talks in both matters.

The situation has since culminated in Troels Lund Poulsen taking over as defense minister and Ellemann-Jensen saying last October that he will be leaving Danish politics. The official who was in charge of defense procurements at the time has also changed jobs. Even though the Danish government maintains that its military will get the best guns for the job, the weapons have not been delivered a year on. The Danish Ministry of Defense said in early April that the Israeli SPGs will not arrive before 2026.

This has caused Nexter to challenge Denmark's decision. While the Danish government has promised an independent investigation, the state of affairs remains confusing.

War has broken out in Israel since then, following the Hamas attack. It is unclear whether it will affect the delivery of Denmark's new guns. France is manufacturing six CAESAR SPGs every month, which the country's Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu has pledged to bump up to 12 in the near future.

Nextar told Defense News that CAESARs have been very successful in Ukraine. While no detailed information has been shared to prove this claim, the French say that only about 10 percent of the 50 SPGs sent to Ukraine have been lost. Nexter claims that this is much better than the roughly 30-percent loss rate of competing systems. It attributed this success to the CAESAR's shoot and scoot ability where the system can fire and relocate very quickly, even though this applies to most wheeled SPGs.

Another factor is that Israel has not allowed its weapons to be sent to Ukraine, while all CAESARs currently in production will go either to Ukraine or the French military, Nexter said. Lithuania, Belgium and Czechia are also waiting on deliveries of CAESAR systems.

On the backdrop of Denmark's bumpy SPG procurement is the fact that the country basically disbanded its artillery in 2014. Efforts to recreate it since 2019 have seen setbacks. While the EDF has no such problems, Denmark's case characterizes the difficult situation on the European defense market caused by Russia's war. Ramil Lipp also said that manufacturers' promises need to be scrutinized, and even though quick delivery is important, rushing defense tenders is a good way to miss the mark.

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