The Social Democratic Party garnered the highest support in the poll on the European Parliament elections, conducted from May 6 to 15, with a total of 23.6 percent of respondents backing its nine candidates (in the 2019 EP elections, the Social Democrats received essentially the same amount of support, 23.3 percent). This means that with less than a month to go before the elections, the SDE is the most secure of the two mandates.

The lion's share of SDE votes went to Marina Kaljurand, who received 16 percent of voter support. Sven Mikser has the best chance of getting into the EP with her at the top (1.9 percent support). Riina Sikkut (1.2), Katri Raik (1.0) and Tanel Kiik (0.9) follow with statistically insignificant margins.

The Reform Party would also win two mandates in this poll, one month before the elections, although its support has dropped slightly: 17.2 percent of respondents supported the Reform Party candidates in May, compared to 18.8 percent in the April poll.

Urmas Paet is clearly the most popular Reform candidate with 9.3 percent support. At the same time, support for Paet has dropped slightly compared to the April poll (11.6 percent). Marko Mihkelson (2.5 percent) and Hanno Pevkur (2.3 percent) are running for the second mandate with almost equal support. Luukas Kristjan Ilves (0.9 percent) is far behind.

Support for Isamaa has also declined. While it was 16.8 percent in April, it is now 14 percent.

While in the April poll 8.1 percent supported Isamaa's leading candidate Riho Terras, in the May poll he had only 4.1 percent. Terras was overtaken by Jüri Ratas, who has been campaigning much more actively and is more visible in the media, with 4.8 percent support. At the same time, the difference in support between Ratas and Terras is statistically insignificant, as both have essentially the same support one month before the elections. Urmas Reinsalu, the chairman of Isamaa, has 3.4 percent support.

Support for EKRE remains unchanged from the April poll at 13.6 percent. Like Isama, they will receive a single but robust mandate.

EKRE's most popular candidate is still its list anchor Jaak Madison with 8.4 percent support. However, Madison's support, which has been in turmoil in the meantime, is slightly down compared to the April poll (10.3 percent).

Martin Helme, the chair of EKRE and leader of the list, received 3.1 percent of the support, meaning that his chances of getting into the European Parliament would only arise if EKRE managed to increase its support in one month and win the second mandates. To achieve this, it would have to raise its rating to at least 17 percent and hope that the Center Party does not win a mandate.

The Center Party is in the most difficult position a month before the elections. The total support for its nine candidates is 11 percent, which is close to a single mandate. A month earlier, they had the same number of supporters as EKRE, 13.8 percent.

The decrease in support for the Center Party is due to the increase in support for Aivo Peterson (Koos).

Peterson, the only candidate from Koos, receives 3.1 percent support, leaving him far from the EP mandate, but taking away votes that are important for the Center Party's mandate. Among voters of other nationalities, Peterson's support is as high as 11.4 percent. Among non-Estonian-speaking respondents, only the Center (45.3 percent) and the SDE (15.6 percent) have more support than him.

Among the Center Party candidates, Mihhail Kõlvart has almost twice as much support as Jana Toom (5.9 percent and 3.2 percent, respectively). If only considering respondents of other nationalities, and those are mainly Russian-speaking voters, Kõlvart has 24.3 percent support and Toom 13.5 percent. Peterson is in third place among foreigners with 11.4 percent.

Should Center still win a mandate, Jana Toom's only chance to get into the EP is if Kõlvart withdraws.

The extra-parliamentary Parempoolsed is gaining support with each poll, reaching 7.2 percent in the first half of May (up from 6.0 percent in April), but it would have to climb to at least 10 percent, or nearly three percentage points, in less than a month to win a mandate.

The most popular Parempoolsed candidates are Lavly Perling, the party's chair and spokesperson, with 3.0 percent, and Rainer Saks with 2.6 percent.

While support for Parempoolsed has increased since March, support for Eesti 200, which was at the same level in March, has declined. With 4.1 percent in the May poll (4.7 percent in April and 5.6 percent in March), they are certainly without a mandate. To claim a mandate, the total support for Eesti 200 candidates would have to increase by at least two and a half times in less than a month.

Of the 200 candidates in Estonia, Kristina Kallas and Indrek Tarand garner the most support, but both are only 0.7 percent, according to a Kantar Emor poll.

The Estonian Greens, fresh from a preliminary victory in the Supreme Court, were represented by two candidates, Evelyn Sepp and Rasmus Lahtvee, who together received almost 1 percent of the support.

Kantar Emor's research expert Aivar Voog also calculated the possible distribution of mandates, but there are no changes compared to previous polls: SDE and Reform would get two mandates and Isamaa, EKRE and Center one. However, compared to previous polls, Isamaa has moved further away from the possibility of two mandates and Center's one mandate has come under threat.

Voog said that what would happen if the Center Party's support continued to dwindle in a month, leaving it without a mandate, would depend on the support of the other parties.

"If Center support falls below 10 percent and Parempoolsed does not get 10 percent, the Social Democrats will get a third mandate. Isamaa would get two mandates if its support rose to 17 percent," he said.

Kantar Emor surveyed 1,471 voters online and by telephone on behalf of the ERR news service. The survey was conducted between May 6 and 15.

The respondent was supplied with a list of all candidates who had registered. The respondent could only choose one candidate. The maximum error for a given sample size is ± 2.3 percent.

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