European elections in Estonia tend to be more personality- than party-based when compared with the Riigikogu and local elections, and with that in mind, Ratas, formerly Center Party leader and premier late 2016 to early 2021 is one of many high profile figures all competing parties run.

This is the case even as Ratas is running in in ninth place on Isamaa's list; the votes he picks up still benefit the party collectively, while Estonia is treated as a single electoral district at elections to the Strasbourg parliament.

In a survey conducted by conservative think tank the Institute for Societal Studies (MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut) and Norstat, respondents were asked which candidate they would prefer were the European Parliament elections to be held next Sunday (actual polling day is June 9).

Ratas was the second-most supported Isamaa candidate, picked by 6 percent of respondents, behind current MEP and former defense forces chief Riho Terras (7.6 percent).

Ratas was also, ironically, level pegging with former Tallinn Mayor Mihhail Kõlvart, who replaced Ratas as Center Party leader last September and also polled at 6 percent according to Norstat.

Terras, Ratas and Kõlvart are not the highest rated candidates overall, however.

That honor goes to sitting MEP Marina Kaljurand (SDE, 15.2 percent), according to Norstat, followed by two more current MEPs, Urmas Paet (Reform, 13.4 percent) and Jaak Madison (EKRE, 9.9 percent).

Independent candidates may also run for election; the most-supported of these according to the Norstat poll is former SDE Riigikogu MP Tanel Talve, who picked up 1.4 percent of support.

Competition remains tight among the leading parties, with small changes in voter support potentially impacting the final outcomes.

By party, Isamaa is also most popular at 21.3 percent support, followed by SDE and Reform almost neck-and-neck at 19.3 percent and 19.1 percent respectively, according to the latest Norstat poll.

EKRE polled at 14.2 percent; the Center Party at 11.5 percent.

Despite being in office both nationally and in Tallinn, Eesti 200 (3.8 percent), contesting its second ever European election, polled lower than Parempoolsed (4.3 percent), ahead of the latter's first European election.

Martin Mölder, associate professor at the University of Tartu's Johan Skytte Institute of Political Studies, noted that compared with previous Norstat and Institute for Societal Research surveys on the European Parliament elections, the latest poll results reveal two significant changes.

One of these was the "Ratas effect."

"Thanks largely to Jüri Ratas' extensive personal social media campaign, Isamaa has improved its overall position and is currently the most favored party in the context of the European Parliament elections," Mölder said.

Mölder added that while most other parties see their support concentrated overwhelmingly behind a single candidate (for example, Urmas Paet, a former foreign minister, in the case of the Reform Party; former Estonian ambassador to Russia Marina Kaljurand for SDE), Isamaa stands out with no fewer than three candidates receiving considerable support. In addition to Ratas and Terras, party leader Urmas Reinsalu also garners significant backing.

"This makes Isamaa's chances of securing two mandates very high at the moment.

This is a zero-sum game, however, given there are only seven seats up for grabs, and that Reform and SDE have two MEP's apiece, at the moment.

"It should be borne in mind that SDE and the Reform Party are only a few percentage points behind [Isamaa], and together with that party, they are competing in territory where every percentage point of votes is crucial. As it stands, two of these three parties will secure two mandates, while one will have to settle for just one. Minor changes in support can make all the difference here," Mölder went on.

The second significant change Mölder noted is that the Center Party has also improved its standing somewhat after a low around the time of the change in leadership.

"The party currently has enough of a base to keep its head above water," he said.

The party has however lost not only moderate support with the departure of Ratas and several other prominent members including some former ministers, but also extremist support, with the advent of the pro-Kremlin EÜVP party.

"Aivo Peterson will certainly attract some voters who would otherwise have voted for the Center Party," Mölder said. The EÜVP is not running a full list but asnoted independent candidates can run.

"Similarly, EKRE, which has lost some support compared with the previous survey, something which has been accompanied by mostly negative media coverage, will have to settle for one mandate in the current situation," Mölder added.

EKRE has a single MEP, Jaak Madison, the party's first, elected at the 2019 European election.

The Norstat survey was conducted in two batches, the first on May 8 and 9, and the second on May 20. The surveys were conducted online, polling just over 2,000 Estonian citizens aged 18 and over.

Non-Estonian EU citizens resident here are eligible to vote in European elections also.

Norstat also notes two factors which could skew results and need to be kept in mind.

First, Norstat says, respondents "significantly overestimate their likely voter turnout."

To account for this, the company adjusted its results weighted to a voter activity index based on Eurobarometer and other European election survey; in other words, some parties stated supporters are in fact more likely to turn out when it counts than others.

This mostly affects the Reform Party, in a positive way, and Center, in a detrimental way, Norstat reports.

The second qualifying factor derives from the methodologies used in the survey itself – since it was conducted online, this would likely benefit some parties, for instance Reform or Eesti 200, more than others.

To iron out this, Norstat also adjusted the results based on its regular party ratings survey, mostly conducted over-the-phone.

"This type of adjustment was tested out in the context of the 2023 Riigikogu elections, where it reduced candidate-level error margins by about 10 percent," Norstat said.

Polling day is Sunday, June 9, preceded by a week's advance voting period when e-votes may be cast.

Eight parties are running full, nine-candidate lists: Reform, SDE, Eesti 200, EKRE, Isamaa, Center, Parempoolsed, Estonian Greens.

Estonia is treated as one single electoral district, with seven mandates being voted for (up one from the pre-Brexit total).

The full, ordered candidate list including independents is here.

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