As of the end of May, 22.1 percent of those polled supported the SDE. Isamaa placed second highest with 20.1 percent and the Reform Party third with 17.8 percent support.

These top three were followed in turn by the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) with 15.5 percent, Center Party with 9.3 percent, Parempoolsed with 4.8 percent and Eesti 200 with 4.7 percent support.

Commenting on these results, Martin Mölder, associate professor of political science at the University of Tartu (TÜ) Johan Skytte Institute of Political Studies, noted that the SDE will very likely earn two of Estonia's seven European Parliament mandates, while EKRE will be limited to one.

"According to these latest results, it is very likely that four parties will earn at least one seat in the European Parliament," Mölder said, specifying that EKRE, Reform, Isamaa and the SDE are each sure to get a seat.

"Parempoolsed and Eesti 200 would be locked out of the European Parliament, and the Center Party currently looks very likely to be joining them," he explained. "Support for the Center Party is right at the edge [of the election threshold] – a fraction of a percentage point more and their seat would be guaranteed, a fraction less and they'd fairly certainly lose out on their only seat."

Assuming that Center still does earn its mandate, that leaves two more seats up for grabs, the associate professor continued.

"One of those two seats would be certain to go to the Social Democrats – and Reform and Isamaa would compete directly for the last remaining seat," he said.

The loss of a second mandate would mark a significant loss for the Reform Party, as it would mean earning just one seat instead of its current two. For Isamaa, however, this would be a major victory, as it would mean gaining an additional seat.

"Assuming that the Center Party will not earn a mandate, there is also a considerable probability of an election result that will give both Isamaa and Reform two mandates in these elections," Mölder said. "The probably of EKRE earning two seats is rather low."

Kaljurand sees highest support

According to the results of the European Parliament elections poll, of individual candidates, Marina Kaljurand (SDE) currently has the highest support at 16.3 percent of eligible voters, followed by Urmas Paet (Reform) with 11.6 percent and Jaak Madison (EKRE) with 9.8 percent.

The top three most popular candidates are followed by Riho Terras (Isamaa) with 7.3 percent, Jüri Ratas (Isamaa) with 5.9 percent and Mihhail Kõlvart (Center) with 5.4 percent.

Tanel Talve is the most popular independent candidate with 1.2 percent support.

This latest poll was conducted online by Norstat Eesti between May 22-31, and included the responses of 3,502 Estonian citizens eligible to vote, i.e. aged 18 and up.

In this wave of polling, the pollster ensured that the majority of the sample immediately preceded election week, i.e. from May 28-31.

Pollster adjusts results to reduce margin of error

Norstat explained that when predicting the possible results of the European Parliament elections via online survey, two factors have to be taken into account that could bias the outcome.

First, respondents in the sample significantly overestimate their own participation in elections. In order to more accurately gauge voter turnout and adjust the results accordingly, Norstat utilized a voter turnout index based on the Eurobarometer and other EP election surveys. This adjustment of voter turnout most benefits the Reform Party and most negatively impacts the Center Party; for the other parties, it doesn't make a significant difference.

Second, online-only surveys are somewhat biased toward certain political parties. Therefore, parties' overall support percentages have been adjusted here based on the results of Norstat's two-week party ratings, the polls for which were conducted largely by phone. Such an adjustment was tested in the context of the 2023 Riigikogu elections, where it reduced the margin of error at the candidate level around 10 percent.

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