Experts: Estonia's producer price index falls due to lower raw material costs

Estonia's producer price index for industrial output fell by nearly three percent on year to April 2024, though it was up slightly from March. According to economic analysts, the fall in producer prices is the result of the high comparative base from last year as well as a reduction in the cost of raw materials. Meanwhile, labor costs continue to rise.
Economic analysts say it is too soon to draw any major conclusions about the fate of Estonia's industries on the basis of a couple of months of data. The fall in producer prices is, in large part, due to the high benchmark.
"Industrial producer prices peaked at the beginning of last year and, since than have fallen slightly, mainly as a result of lower energy prices and lower commodity prices. Timber and metals have brought prices down, while other costs have gone up," said Lenno Uusküla, chief economist at Luminor Bank.
"If you look at the sectors where producer prices have fallen more, it is mainly due to the decrease in raw material prices. Commodity prices have been falling on the world market for several years. The building materials industry, and also the wood sector. It is those with a higher share of labor costs, such as electronics and pharmaceuticals that are rising," said Karel Lember, an analyst at the Estonian Ministry of Economic Affairs.
According to Uusküla, the fall in manufacturing prices seems to have now come to a halt as materials are no longer getting cheaper. At the same time, there are no visible signs of a recovery.
"Manufacturing is producing relatively little compared to what it is capable of producing. Machine utilization is poor, which also drives up costs," Uusküla said.
However, there are also some more positive signs. For example, Rain Johanson, head of metalworking company Eesti Kraanavabrik, said that their orders have soared in recent months.
"In the last three months we have seen a dramatic increase in investment, we have received a lot of new orders. We have also seen the completion and expansion of several new plants in Estonia," he said. Johanson added that the number of orders the company has received, has grown by hundreds of percent.
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Editor: Marko Tooming, Michael Cole