Whenever we carry out media studies at Kantar Emor, people – irrespective of their age, nationality, education etc. – say that there is too much information for them to make sense of it all. "It's like getting caught in a flood," a woman in her thirties said during a focus group discussion in terms of what it feels like putting up with the onslaught of information coming via her smartphone, TV set, computer and smartwatch every single day.

One way to better navigate this abundance of information is relying on experts, opinion leaders and other influential persons people trust to analyze and give meaning to information.

Opinion leaders are not a new phenomenon. French sociologist Gabriel Tarde wrote at the beginning of the previous century how people's opinions are influenced by everyday events and personal conservations. Sociologists Katz and Lazarsfeld described in the 1950s how opinion leaders relay media messages to less-informed member of society. They described opinion leaders as intermediates between the media and the rest of society.

When we ask people in polls whose opinions they trust, public figures, like politicians, scientists or businesspeople, but also loved ones, colleagues and family members are mentioned.

In recent years, there seems to be a new category of opinion leader. People we might refer to as opinion influencers. They are opinion leaders whose input is largely facilitated or at least amplified by social media. Examples include Teet Kalmus, Rainer Saks and Igor Taro when it comes to reporting on the Ukraine war, or Kristi Saare, Jaak Roosaare, Raivo Hein etc. on financial literacy.

There are influential personalities in every field, from gardening and psychology to war and medicine. People who synthesize, simplify and provide an overview of information others do not have the time, expert knowledge or both to analyze themselves.

To give the Ukraine war example from the recently completed Estonian Integration Monitoring, people were hungry for information about the war at first and spent hours scouring the web for information.

As the war dragged on, this kind of media use quickly became insensible since it took too much time and was emotionally oppressive. But the desire to keep up with how the conflict was developing remained, which proved possible with the help of people writing summaries on social media. Readers felt they got the information they needed quickly and comprehensively without having to spend too much time on analysis.

Compared to traditional news, such summaries provide the author's personal analysis and viewpoints, which is something people value.

In qualitative studies, young people often say they do not have to keep up with traditional news or seek original sources because social media is full of interesting influencers whose opinion they value and trust. They feel that they get all they need from social media.

Young people's opinion leaders are often world-famous stars or people no one in Estonia has heard of, such as influencers the same age as the reader from Hong Kong or the U.S.

Double-edged sword

But relying on opinion influencers can be a double-edged sword. While expert advice can help one make better financial decisions, become a better parent or feel up to speed on critical war news, anyone can style themselves an expert on social media, including people whose argumentation doesn't bother with the laws of nature and physics, or whose moral compass is all over the place (such as Andrew Tate).

Despite this – or perhaps because of it – they can have a lot of followers. Unlike traditional journalism, judged on its objectivity, independence and balance, these standards have no bearing in social media.

We've asked people in various studies what they believe best characterizes an opinion leader. We very often hear than an opinion leader is someone who brings new and interesting information and whose thoughts reflect a person's own convictions. "They sport a similar worldview or understanding of life," said a man who participated in a media study commissioned by the Ministry of Culture.

In other words, people want opinion leaders to say things that fit into the context of their existing knowledge and convictions. This explains why an opinion leader can present the flat Earth theory as something rooted in evidence and still be considered a trustworthy person of influence in their circle.

Opinion leaders in the mirror

Sociologists Katz and Lazarsfeld concluded in their early opinion leader influence studies in the 1950s that people make choices they believe others like them would make. That is just what we saw in focus groups with people who tend to trust Telegram.ee alternative news over doctors or prefer the Objektiiv portal to the public broadcaster. People look for opinion leaders who are like them, and the ability of social media to offer something for everyone is both its blessing and curse.

What do opinion influencers get out of their work processing and giving meaning to information?

Many have said it is their contribution to society and charity. At the same time, it is also a public relations effort and one aimed at reinforcing one's image as an expert, which can pay dividends in other ways. For example, journalist and war blogger Igor Taro is now a member of the Riigikogu, while security expert Rainer Saks is running for the European Parliament. Expressing their opinion on social media has not turned them into experts as they were respected opinion leaders before the war, but social media has undoubtedly given them a forum and amplified their messages.

There are other kinds of examples. Teet Kalmus was not a household name before the war, even though people in his circle still benefited from in-depth social media posts from Kalmus. Now, survey participants refer to Kalmus as an opinion leader and thousands await his Ukraine war summaries.

Opinion influencers have made our work somewhat easier by collecting, analyzing and giving meaning to information, helping to sort out the information chaos people feel they must navigate on a daily basis. On the other hand, it is all the more important to pick the right opinion influencers and trailblazers to make sure what they come up with is compatible with what the person would be left with if they critically analyzed information for themselves.

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