Natural gas prices in Estonia may start to fall in the autumn

The upcoming price hikes to consumers of natural gas may be followed by a fall in prices any time from the end of summer, major market participants say.
In the meantime, increased demand and disruptions in international supplies have driven up global natural gas prices, to the extent that they are now affecting Estonian consumers.
Estonia's major gas suppliers have increased prices to private residential consumers in June, with another price hike expected in July.
Marko Allikson, board member of energy traders Baltic Energy Partners said: "European storage facilities are still at relatively full capacity for the time of year, if anything slightly more than at the same time last year. The EU goal of being at 90 percent capacity by November 1 will most likely be met ahead of deadline."
"On the other hand, replenishing storage facilities has been a slower process than last year, so perhaps a price drop is more likely to be forecast for the time at which there is no longer much need to attract natural gas to European storage. This could happen at some point in the fall," Allikson went on.
Natural gas prices might start to fall again in the fall or, in the best case scenario, in the second half of the summer, again, once gas storage facilities Europe-wide are at full capacity.
Eesti Gaas CEO Margus Kaasik said: "I think these storage tanks will be filled, preparations will be made for winter, then the market may start to calm down, but this will be likely only in the fall."
Kalvi Nõu, energy portfolio manager at fuel retailer Alexela, meanwhile said: "Currently, the biggest concern in Europe is whether Norway's gas supplies will be smaller than projected this year, while there are also fears about the continuity of supply of Russian-origin gas to Austria."
"If these risks do not largely materialize, then we can expect prices to fall again in the second half of the summer as gas storage facilities are filled," Nõu continued.
Kaasik said that suppliers had "managed to keep the price stable for two months – April and May, when it was 42 cents per cubic meter."
Nõu said: "From June, the price will rise to 49 cents, and from July, it will be 59 cents. This is the result of a trend towards a rise in global gas price."
"A long-term downward trend, one which lasted for several months, evaporated at the end of February," Kaasik went on, speaking about the price trends so far this year.
Nõu added that Alexela's variable gas package will from June rise to just under 45 cents per cubic meter; from July, the price also to 59 cents.
"The price for fixed-price packages remains the same, and those on market-price packages will also see no change," Nõu said.
Eesti Gaas and Alexela are to further hike their prices in July, rationalizing this with the warm weather and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Whereas a cubic meter of gas as sold in Eesti Gaas' home consumer flexible package cost 42 cents in May, in June it will cost 49 cents, rising to 59 cents for a cubic meter in July. Alexela's prices are noted above.
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Editor: Andrew Whyte, Merili Nael