The survey, conducted by pollsters Kantar Emor, took place between May 27 and June 2 across a nationwide sample group of nearly 1,500 Estonian citizens of voting age, and reflects a Riigikogu election scenario, as opposed to a European Parliament election.

Given that Kantar Emor had polled voter preferences in respect of this week's European Parliament elections twice in the month of May, the firm also conducted two surveys on Riigikogu election preferences.

The next Riigikogu elections are in 2027, while differences between them and European elections include a slightly narrower franchise (since non-Estonian EU nationals permanently resident in Estonia are eligible to vote at European elections, but only Estonian citizens can vote on the Riigikogu composition), and also a greater emphasis on parties at Riigikogu elections – compared with the more candidate-based European elections.

At present, five parties hold the seven MEP seats allocated to Estonia (a proportion projected to remain after this week's election), whereas there are six parties currently represented at the Riigikogu.

In comparison with its Riigikogu survey held in early May survey, Kantar's latest poll shows Social Democratic Party (SDE) support falling from 18 percent to 15 percent.

There had been no other significant changes in the support for the other Riigikogu parties.

Isamaa leads pack at 23 percent (compared with 22 percent in early May).

Following them are the Reform Party on 19 percent and the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) just behind at 18 percent (both parties' ratings went up by exactly one percentage point between early and late May).

The Center Party polled at 12 percent (down from 13 percent in early May).

Among non-Estonian respondents, meaning Russian-speaking voters in Estonia, the party's traditional bedrock, Center picked up 52 percent support, compared with just 2 percent among native Estonian-speaking respondents.

Support for Eesti 200 ran at 5 percent, bang on the proportion of votes required to win seats.

Parempoolsed was just below that at 4 percent, and the Estonian Greens polled at 2 percent, Kantar Emor said.

The remaining 27 percent of respondents were undecided, a slight rise on the 26 percent seen in the first half of May

Taking into account undecided respondents, support for Isamaa was at 17 percent, that of the Reform Party at 15 percent, EKRE's at 13 percent, and SDE's at 12 percent.

The Center Party polled at 9 percent in the current survey, Estonia 200 had four percent, Parempoolsed three percent, and the Greens one percent.

Kantar Emor conducted its latest survey both online and over the phone interviewing 1,489 eligible voters nationwide. Kantar Emor claims a maximum margin of error of +/-2.3 percent.

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