Alar Karis: I do not agree that time is on Russia's side
It is time to lift the restrictions on the use of weapons sent to Ukraine, as any such restrictions are artificial and pointless. Ukraine's clearest victory and Russia's clearest defeat would be Ukraine's accession to the European Union and NATO, said President Alar Karis in a speech delivered at the YES conference in Kyiv.
Some say that Ukraine has already won, and Russia has already lost. In a certain sense, they are right. Ukraine thwarted Vladimir Putin's dream of a quick three-day war, turning it into a long and costly endeavor for Russia, during which half a million Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded.
Ukraine has now proven to everyone that they have the toughest army in the world and that they are the bravest people in the world. Ukraine is successfully attacking military targets deep within Russian territory, which is entirely justified and correct.
However, all of this paints only half the picture. There is still much work to be done to achieve victory.
Russia still occupies one-fifth of Ukraine. Russian missiles continue to terrorize civilians across Ukraine, depriving them of electricity, water, heat and peaceful sleep.
Putin, however, remains firmly committed to continuing the bloodshed, no matter the cost. He continues to issue absurd ultimatums and demands, which not only involve Ukrainian territory but also call for NATO to retract to its 1997 borders and for the establishment of buffer and influence zones. This is completely unacceptable, and we will not allow it to happen.
I hear several countries expressing a desire for a quick diplomatic solution and compromise with Russia, and there is a spreading hope that resetting relations with Putin's Russia is possible or even inevitable.
This is nothing more than a delusion. Every such reset with Russia has invariably failed. The only result has been continued aggression. History has taught us that negotiating with dictators is dangerous. Yielding to their demands only increases their appetite. In the end, it is the dictator himself who is the quickest to break the promises given. I advise, instead, to follow President Ronald Reagan's words when he said, "Seeking peace with evil brings neither safety nor security."
The only way to end this war is to force Russia to give up. Russia must lose this war. This will require determination and long-term commitment from all of us. We must continue to supply Ukraine's military leaders with the weapons they request. It's true that no single weapon can change the course of the war overnight, but together, they can have a significant impact on the battlefield.
This, of course, means that we must also lift all restrictions on the use of these weapons. Any such restrictions are artificial and pointless. They force Ukraine to fight with one hand tied behind its back in an already unequal battle against the aggressor.
Ukraine is paying for these restrictions every day with lost lives. Iran and North Korea do not impose any limits on Russia's use of their weapons. So it is time to lift the restrictions on the use of weapons sent to Ukraine.
Unfortunately, there is still talk of vague Russian "red lines" that should not be crossed. This is pure self-deception. Behind it lies indecision and fear, which in turn plays into Russia's hands.
In reality, it was Russia that crossed a thick red line when it invaded Ukraine, violating the UN Charter. Russia crosses a new red line every day by attacking Ukrainian hospitals, kindergartens and apartment buildings.
Russia's military cooperation with Iran and North Korea also crosses multiple red lines. Let us take a moment to realign our moral compass. Let us also enforce our own red lines.
The strength of the West is not just in military technology but also in our ability to cooperate. I welcome all coalitions and initiatives aimed at supplying Ukraine with the necessary capabilities and ammunition, just as I welcome our allies discussing the possibility of shooting down Russian missiles heading toward NATO countries from over Ukraine.
Since this has become a war of attrition, we must not only provide military support but also help bolster Ukraine's economy.
Many believe that time is on Russia's side. I disagree. The European Union plans to produce more artillery shells than Russia by 2025, and Ukraine's defense industry is rapidly increasing its production capacity and development.
Despite Russia's shift to a wartime economy, the defense budgets of the Western world are still 12 times larger than Russia's. Time is actually on our side – on Ukraine's side. And we should use it wisely.
The battlefield is not limited to Ukraine. Estonia defines Ukraine's victory more broadly: it is a situation where Russia no longer dares to attack another country. This is the kind of victory we should all aim for collectively.
It is now clear to everyone that the outcome of this war will significantly impact not only Ukraine's independence but also the security situation in Europe and beyond. Therefore, we must not forget that Russia must remain isolated on the international stage. Thanks to our collective efforts, Russia was expelled from the Council of Europe and the UN Human Rights Council, and it was barred from holding the chair of several UN bodies. This work must continue.
We have begun to use revenue from Russia's frozen assets for the benefit of Ukraine. We have also imposed unprecedented sanctions packages. Of course, the enforcement of sanctions must be stricter, and it is clear that we must limit any circumvention of these measures.
We should not stop here. Russia must be placed under a complete trade embargo, particularly regarding fossil fuels. It saddens me to say that since the full-scale invasion began, European Union member states have paid Russia €200 billion for fossil fuels.
To date, over 136,000 war crimes committed by Russia have been documented. This documentation is invaluable and exemplary work, but we must also hold those responsible for starting this war accountable. If Putin acts like a war criminal and speaks like a war criminal, it is obvious to everyone that he truly is a war criminal.
For Ukraine, the clearest victory, and for Russia, the clearest defeat, would be Ukraine's accession to the European Union and NATO. Ukraine deserves this. The Ukrainian people are defending the very values upon which both alliances were originally founded. Adding such a brave and capable ally would only benefit NATO, and Ukrainians would undoubtedly contribute to European security, as they are already doing. Therefore, Estonia firmly supports Ukraine's membership in the European Union and NATO.
Ukraine's victory and the restoration of the principles of the UN Charter are crucial for the future of all nations, whether large or small, near or far. Every nation must contribute to ensuring that Ukraine can defeat Russia, and that is why Estonia will continue to work hard to help Ukraine win.
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Editor: Marcus Turovski