This week, media reports began circulating that Russia has launched a counteroffensive in the Kursk region against Ukrainian forces that had penetrated the area. However, security expert Rainer Saks believes this is not a large-scale counteroffensive.

"Looking at everything that has happened over the past four or five days, it seems that Russia did not initiate a major counteroffensive, but rather a limited operation aimed at unblocking units trapped in the Glushkovo district after Ukraine destroyed the bridges over the river during earlier events. So far, Ukraine has been able to respond with its own attack against these troops, reach their rear and halt their advance," Saks explained.

"Now the fighting is taking place in a so-called grey area, where positions and territories are changing hands. So, while Russia has managed to recapture some territory, it has also lost other areas. In the bigger picture, not much has changed," he added.

Saks noted that Russia is eager to reclaim the territory in the Kursk region that fell to Ukraine, but has been plagued by confusion in this effort.

"A month and a half has passed, and Russia has not been able to concentrate significant forces there. Estimates range from 30,000 to 45,000 troops, with Ukraine's General Staff suggesting up to 60,000, but I believe that includes all forces present in the entire Kursk region," said Saks, noting that this reflects the state of Russia's army reserves.

"The most important takeaway from this situation is that the Russian army does not have the reserves to quickly shift troops from one location to another. In other words, they have not been able to prepare a reserve force that could support the war effort on other fronts. Ukraine's attack has exposed this weakness in Russia's military planning. They only have enough troops to focus on attacking the Donbas front," Saks explained.

Saks pointed out that Russia is pulling troops into the Kursk region from wherever it can, but it faces several problems.

"First of all, the Kursk region does not have the logistics system needed to deploy a large number of troops and put them into combat. It's now clear that before this incursion, Ukraine had spent the entire spring and summer bombing parts of the Kursk region and attacking it with drones, likely destroying some warehouses and supplies that were needed to support Russian troops on the ground. This may explain why Russia cannot bring in too many troops at once," the security expert said.

"Another issue is that Russia has to transport these forces from Donbas over a long, arcing route across Russia via a lengthy railway line. They have to load and unload equipment, which takes a lot of time and resources, and the railway's capacity is not very high. Meanwhile, they also need to bring in other reserves to the Donbas front," he added.

"I think all of this has led to the situation where they are taking combat-ready units from wherever it's most convenient at the moment. However, most of the troops have definitely been pulled from the south. Since the Kursk operation began, there has been complete silence in the south. Russian units occasionally attempt small symbolic reconnaissance attacks, but that's all," Saks observed.

According to Saks, Ukraine's offensive in Kursk has posed a serious political challenge for Russia, and the Kursk operation is likely just getting started.

"Right now, the most important thing is that the Russian army has been caught off guard and is unable to respond. There's confusion. This increases their uncertainty and gives the Ukrainians new tactical opportunities they can exploit," said Saks

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