If these extraordinary ammunition costs are excluded, defense spending, based on NATO calculations, will also fall by 1 percent next year, while the 2026 rise will be 4.3 percent instead of the 16.9 percent earlier claimed.

The 2025 state budget was unveiled yesterday, Wednesday, while the accompanying four-year state budget strategy, known in Estonian as the RES, was made public today, covering the period 2025-2028.

Government members had taken on board both current and former Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) commanders' calls for €1.6 billion to be spent on extra ammunition.

Now, €825 million of this is deferred to the years 2029-2031, leaving as noted €787.1 million within the context of the 2025-2028 state budget strategy.

The new state budget strategy also itemizes, backdated to 2022, Estonia's plans to spend €4 billion on ammunition from that year until 2031 inclusive.

By year, €75.6 million is earmarked for ammunition procurement next year alone, the new budget strategy document reveals.

€254.1 million will be allocated for the same purpose in 2026, and again in 2027, while in 2028, €203.3 million is to be set aside.

€300 million is earmarked for 2029 and 2030 each, with 2031's figure to come to €825 million.

This totals €1.61 billion, ie. the figure earlier announced for extra ammunition spending, though not to be completed until 2031.

The years 2029-2031 lie outside the current state budget strategy, so no estimates for revenues or other expenses for those years have been made – making the figures more an ideal than anything.

Additionally, a Riigikogu election is set for March 2027, likely to alter the political landscape before the new state budget strategy period is over.

Based on NATO's calculations (which excludes foreign funding and depreciation) defense spending was supposed to rise each year, from €1.33 billion this year, to €1.67 billion in 2028. The largest rise was meant to come in 2026 (the planned 16.9 percent noted above).

Ministry of Defense total resources are also projected to rise, from €1.59 billion next year, to €1.69 billion come 2028.

The €1.6 billion in extra ammunition was recommended by former EDF commander Gen. Martin Herem and his successor Maj. Gen. Andrus Merilo as the sum required to be confident that, in a conflict, fighting would be confined to enemy territory rather than happening on Estonian soil.

Estonia has long been renowned for exceeding the defense spend of 2 percent of GDP per annum required, though not met by all member states, for NATO membership.

While this will remain so, the percentage will fluctuate – from 3.4 percent of GDP this year, to 3.32 percent next year.

In 2026 it is projected to rise again, to 3.68 percent of GDP, before falling again to 3.58 percent in 2027 and again to 3.43 percent in 2028.

These fluctuations are put down partly to the additional ammunition procurement.

Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur (Reform) said the move is rational as some purchases will not be possible until 2028 or 2029, such as long-range missiles.

"However, it is important that we can enter into contracts right away and plan deliveries for 2030, 2031 as well. We also already have valid plans according to which, for example, next year the real supply volume of ammunition will be over €700 million," the minister said.

This article was updated to add a comment from Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur.

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