Former head of the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) Gen. Martin Herem said that if the EDF does not receive at least €1.6 billion worth of ammunition, then in the event of a Russian attack, military combat would take place on Estonian territory even if NATO intervened at an early stage.

"Yes. I think so. Above all, this military combat would not take place in the form of soldiers' boots on Estonian soil, but with the aggressor's missiles and rockets on our territory, aimed at our soldiers, as well as at our civilian infrastructure," Gen. Herem told ERR.

"This is essentially what is happening in Ukraine today. The front line is one thing, but launching things deep is quite another. And in order to prevent that, whether that's after a conflict has already broken out or, if for example, it is to show Russia today that if they're going to do this, we're going to shoot back, then you need a certain amount of a certain type of ammunition. Because the equipment to fly these things, we have either already acquired or will essentially acquire in the next year and a half," Gen. Herem said.

"That's all been funded (launchers - ed.). The question is the ammunition. And it's very indirectly linked to NATO's plans, whether that's a ten-year capability development or these defense plans. We may have troops here, but what is the situation if they come in from the other side of the Narva River? Are we just going to wait a little while until they come to us and then take their tanks apart with spanners and wrenches or are we going to have the capacity to fire back?" he added.

Gen. Herem said that in the two and a half years since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, began many countries have not moved particularly quickly to replenish their stocks. "We are talking about certain anti-aircraft weapons, for which certain NATO countries have got together and started to procure. But in terms of the bigger picture, as far as I know, there has been no specific procurement of ammunition," Gen. Herem said.

"In this respect, we should not rely too much on our allies. And if we are to rely on our allies, then we would go to the Americans, British or Italians specifically and say, you see, we are about a billion short, buy us this ammunition. That's out of the question," Gen. Herem continued.

The former EDF chief pointed out that the military advice he gave in July showed, to the nearest tank and soldier, how much work was to be done by the allies and how much by the Estonian Defense Forces.

"If a politician says that the allies should do more, they should indicate in that document or in the advice given by the current commander of the defense forces to show where they say the role of the allies ought to be greater. And then somehow explain this to the allies," Gen. Herem said.

"If the politicians think that this needs to be changed, then the line should be changed in these kinds of documents and the responsibility or burden should be taken away from the Chief of the defense forces. Because at the moment, the Chief of the defense forces says that in order for me to protect you, I have to fight in this way and for that I need these means. So, tell him that we don't have to defend this way, let's do it another way. We will either have to take the risk that the enemy does not come at all or be willing to accept the losses and the destruction," Gen. Herem said.

Herem: EDF now better prepared than Ukraine at beginning of full-scale invasion

According to Herem, Estonia's soldiers are better prepared today than their Ukrainian counterparts were in February 2022. The more pressing issue is the lack of ammunition.

"Today they say we have no people. Go to Ukraine and ask what they are short of. Are they short of people to fire the artillery or are they short of artillery and mortars? And we have prepared our forces much better than the Ukrainians had at the beginning of 2022, when the war escalated. We very definitely have much better prepared reserves," said Gen. Herem.

"Of course we would always need more people. But we taught the Ukrainians how to fire artillery in 18 days. We have basically trained Ukrainian soldiers in two weeks. So, I think that's a very small problem. But we can't get ammunition from anywhere in two weeks. If we don't get it today, we won't have it in three years' time," he said.

"I'm not sure that in three years' time, if we also don't have the ammunition, Russia will not test us militarily," Herem added.

Last Thursday, Gen. Andrus Merilo, the current commander of the Estonian Defense Forces, told the Estonian government that if only half the requested €1.6 billion worth of ammunition is purchased then, in the event of a war, combat would take place on Estonian soil and lead to catastrophic losses.

Last Friday and this Monday, Estonian Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur (Reform) declined to provide a comment to ERR about the EDF chief's advice.

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