Committee chair: Talk of hiking defense spend to 5 percent of GDP 'premature'
Talk of definitively raising defense spending in Estonia to five percent of GDP per year is premature, Riigikogu National Defense Committee chair Kalev Stoicescu (Eesti 200) said.
Stoicescu added that sums the government can allocate on ammunition procurement will depend on the final details of the proposed security tax, and the revenue it generates.
He said: "It is clear that the real level of defense spending is to rise— starting from 2026 — due to this one-off extraordinary investment perhaps temporarily reaching four or 4.5 percent of GDP."
"However, we cannot yet talk with certainty about any intention to raise military defense spending to 5 percent, or any other percentage of GDP. That is not in the coalition agreement," Stoicescu went on.
The MP also noted that the coalition agreement does not state that the one-off extraordinary investment, which necessitates the temporary imposition of the security tax, will become permanent after 2027 or 2028.
"A wide national defense will be adequately funded. This is a very big effort, taking into consideration the need to restore the country's finances and guide the economy toward growth, without which it would be almost impossible to cover the rising defense costs," he added.
The defense committee chair also added that the non-military side of comprehensive national defense funding is not only aimed at the interior ministry's purview, but also covers cyber defense, cybersecurity, and other critical national defense needs.
Stoicescu also said that outgoing Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) Commander Gen. Martin Herem has yet to present his recommendations to the committee.
Gen. Herem told the government last Thursday that if the military does not receive €1.6 billion on ammunition and were only to get half that sum, any military conflict would take place entirely on Estonian soil and would result in catastrophic losses.
Stpicescu said more generally, his party, Eesti 200, firmly backs a comprehensive national defense, including military defense, civil defense, and bolstering other civilian capacities, based on the principles and goals agreed upon in the coalition agreement signed in the summer with Reform and the Social Democrats.
A national security tax from 2026 will finance the costs associated with any one-off extraordinary national defense investment, such as ammunition procurements, to be divided between military defense and civilian national defense efforts, Stoicescu said, putting the ratio at, for example, 3:1, in favor of military defense.
This is on top of at least 3 percent of GDP per annum going on military spending as included in the state budget strategy, along with costs incurred by the NATO host nation – ie. Estonia hosting other allied states' personnel.
The total sum and yearly distribution of the one-off extraordinary defense investment will be determined based on the final details of the security tax and the revenue arising from it, Stoicescu said.
Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur (Reform) said recently that the new NATO capability targets presented to Estonia in July mean that defense spending may need to rise to as much as 5 percent of GDP, to fully meet these goals.
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Editor: Andrew Whyte