Abel served with the United Nations Truce Supervision Organization (UNTSO), a peacekeeping mission in the Middle East, in southern Lebanon from March 2023 until March 2024. He told ERR about his experience and the region.

Although Hezbollah's positions were discussed everywhere, no one publicly stated that the organization had a stronghold there, he said. About a decade ago, Hezbollah, under the cover of the organization Green Without Borders – which has been sanctioned by the USA – began placing its containers along the so-called Blue Line, which marks the Israeli border.

"They put the Green Without Borders label on it, and no one could take action. You could see that this man is a fighter, he acts like a fighter, looks like a fighter, but technically, no one could do anything about it. They claimed they were watering trees and growing a forest," Abel explained. "That's how these positions appeared along the border. And they continued to appear until Israel said in 2022, 'Enough, we're going to counter this in other ways now,' and started erecting a large concrete wall along the Blue Line."

Lebanon likely knew about Hamas' plan

Abel recalled that last autumn, before Hamas launched its October 7 attack on Israel, it was noticeable that something had changed in southern Lebanon, which borders northern Israel.

"Last year, around September 13, during our routine patrol, we were stopped and not allowed to continue on our usual patrol route. One of our interpreters then said, 'Yeah, something is wrong — these are exactly the kind of events that started happening before the 2006 war [between Israel and Hezbollah].' It was a small sign that something was about to go sour."

Abel said Hezbollah likely had information something was planned a month before.

"The signs indicated that things were starting to buzz, like in a beehive. Before, the main incidents we reported were people approaching the border and taking photos. But about a month before [October 7], provocations against Israeli positions near the border began, with a lot of movement and activity. Many new positions also appeared in that last month — another container would show up, and there were guys stationed there — it was quite significant," he said.

After the Hamas attack, the air raid sirens were followed by approximately 12 hours of silence on the Lebanese side, and then the Israeli airstrikes began, he recalled.

"All those Green Without Borders containers were taken out by drones and aircraft. Drones were permanently in the air, and if more than four people gathered near the border at dusk, a strike was launched immediately. The Israelis have developed a clear vision — any strike is met with a tenfold response. And that is how things started to escalate," Abel said.

Hezbollah responded by firing anti-tank missiles at Israeli radars and electronic intelligence antennas, so-called golf balls, on the border.  

It was also suspected that Israeli special forces (SOF) had been in southern Lebanon since the end of 2023 to transmit information to destroy Hezbollah leaders with precision strikes, Abel said.

"I remember sometime in November or December, it came up that Israeli special forces were operating inside the area. This was indicated by the fact that major warlords were being eliminated with surgical precision. You cannot take someone out with such precision unless you have eyes on the ground — you cannot do it with just a drone. One warlord was killed in such a way that, in a densely populated area, a rocket was fired directly into his car from above, killing him and his comrades inside the vehicle, while everyone else around remained unharmed," he described.

Israel could push north along the coast

The Israeli ground invasion that started on Tuesday will likely see Israel move north and along the coastal road to the city of Tyre, and then head east, inland, Abel suggested.

"I think they will not go beyond Tyre but will instead create a buffer zone, much like they did in 2002," he said.

"And of course, right now they are taking advantage of the reserve forces gathered there for the Gaza war to conduct another major operation, a sort of 'decade clean-up,'" Abel continued. "That is likely the whole idea and plan, because Hezbollah is not showing any signs that it will not launch another rocket into some Israeli village. And Israel, I think, simply wants to train its forces again, use up old ammunition, and probably clear out that buffer zone a bit more."

Abel believes Hezbollah has probably lost much of its weaponry in Israeli airstrikes unless it is hidden in very deep underground hideouts.

"They did not show any signs of having weapons at all. They likely do not have any either. If they do, then they are probably small arms caches hidden in the Bekaa Valley, which have already been scouted and neutralized by the Israelis. They certainly do not have the kind of arsenal needed to destroy large columns or any significant artillery," he explained. "To stand a chance against Israel if they come in full force, Hezbollah would have to bring out modern tanks, anti-tank weapons, and fully equipped fighters from underground tunnels that no one has seen yet. Based on any visible signs, you cannot say that they are heavily armed or equipped with advanced technology."

Hezbollah certainly has some anti-tank weapons, and its fighters can probably blow up the narrowest roads, Abel said. But Israel is certainly much stronger now than it was in the 2006 conflict. "Israel has learned its lessons from 2006 and basically it is a completely different army," he said.

Hezbollah is a people's movement that cannot be destroyed

When asked if it would be possible for Israel to completely destroy Hezbollah, Abel said no.

"No-no-no! Hezbollah is still a people's movement, young men are honored to belong to this organization, they may even become martyrs and it is an honor for them, it will not be eradicated /..../ it is here to stay," Abel explained. "it is such a big confrontation that can just end with one moment there's peace on earth again, everyone takes action, pulls themselves together, until next time."

"In this regard, I do not think that Hezbollah will disappear completely. It is still inside the people," he stressed.

The Israeli army started a ground operation against the targets of the extremist group Hezbollah in the settlements of the southern part of Lebanon overnight on Tuesday.

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