"I think that's a fairly appropriate conclusion," Raudsik replied when asked whether Israel will be more successful this time than in previous incursions into Southern Lebanon.

He said that it's clear that Israel is taking a very systematic approach to this challenge. "First by taking out communications with the pager attack, then airstrikes, and also targeting various Hezbollah leaders, including killing their leader Hassan Nasrallah – all of this weakens Hezbollah," he explained.

"In reality, Hezbollah isn't as capable and able to coordinate a response to the ground operation now on top of this," he continued, referring to Israel's ground offensive into Lebanon, which was launched overnight into Tuesday.

The Estonian expert explained that Hezbollah's position is further weakened by the U.S.' clear support of Israel and the fact that the organization has other enemies as well that would like to see it gone.

"Let's be honest – Hezbollah has far more enemies than, for example, Hamas, which was still fighting the Palestinians' fight for freedom, so to speak," Raudsik acknowledged. "But Hezbollah has been involved on [Syrian dictator] Bashar al-Assad's side in the Syrian Civil War, actually going against the will of the Syrian people. In Lebanon, they've been hostile to other ethnic and religious groups, and they've also carried out terrorist attacks against Western countries. In that sense, the list of those who want to be rid of Hezbollah is pretty long."

The Estonian expert noted that both sides have been preparing for Israel's possible invasion into Hezbollah-controlled areas of Lebanon.

"If we go back in time, we can see how even at the beginning of the year, both leading Israeli officials and, on the other side, Lebanon – and particularly Hezbollah – saw this possibility," he explained. "This was at a time when the war in Gaza had already begun and gone on for a few months. Since the start of that war, Hezbollah changed its tactics, and attacks from the Lebanese side [against Israel] increased. So there was a certain expectation here for escalation. But I think the main reason why this became possible now is that Israel, at least in its own view and practice, has been successful enough in Gaza and the threat from Hamas has been mitigated."

According to Raudsik, Israel understands that it cannot eliminate the threat from Hezbollah through airstrikes alone, which is why it's necessary to send ground troops there as well.

"If Israel really wants to achieve its goal, which is to mitigate the threat from Hezbollah, then a buffer zone of some 15-25 kilometers needs to be established there," he said. "These are the numbers that Israel itself has previously mentioned. And this isn't to hold that 20 kilometers indefinitely; it's the area where Hezbollah's various hideouts and ammunition depots are currently located. That is – in order to access those, they need to physically head in there."

Nonetheless, he also recalled that several of Israel's previous incursions into Lebanon have not ended successfully.

"We've also seen earlier moments in history in which Israel has tried to take control of Southern Lebanon up to the Litani River – to gain control there," the Middle East expert noted. "But so far, [they've] failed to achieve this, if we look back at the years 2006, 200, and even further back, to the Cold War era. In that sense, this region has always been Israel's focus – it's been a threat to them, it's in close proximity and they've been trying all along to establish some sort of control in order to mitigate the threat arising from there. Now is just another attempt in that timeline."

Asked how Israel's current invasion might end, Raudsik outlined three possible outcomes, but admitted that it's impossible to say which of them will ultimately play out.

"Either the Lebanese Army will take some sort of control over the buffer zone, or the UN peacekeeping mission will be given a more robust mandate following this conflict," he explained, adding that a third possibility involves Israeli forces remaining there on the ground.

The Estonian expert particularly emphasized the UN peacekeeping mission's opportunities, as there are currently 10,000 peacekeepers in the region there but they haven't been able to operate under the UN Security Council's (UNSC) mandate, as to date there have been Hezbollah-controlled areas in the region where UN troops have been unable to enter.

"Someone has to take control of the buffer zone, and there are essentially three options here," he said.

Raudsik acknowledged that Israel's ground attack is expected to increase the number of casualties on both sides, and added that it's impossible to predict at this point how long it may last.

Overnight into Tuesday, the Israeli military launched a ground operation in the villages of Southern Lebanon, conducting what it has described as "limited, localized and targeted" raids against Hezbollah.

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