Isamaa's support has fallen by 2.9 percentage points over the past four weeks and was last lower in November 2023. Center Party support remains stable, meaning the gap has narrowed due to Isamaa's decline.

The Social Democratic Party (SDE) is in third place with 16 percent — its best result in the past two years — though the gap with Isamaa and the Center Party remains significant.

Reform Party is fourth with 14 percent, and EKRE fifth with 13.1 percent.

Support for Parempoolsed stood at 6.8 percent in the latest poll, and Eesti 200 received 1.4 percent.

One percent supported the Koos party, 0.7 percent the Greens, and 0.4 percent ERK.

Isamaa–Center coalition would need a third partner

Coalition parties together were supported by 15.4 percent of respondents, while Riigikogu opposition parties were supported by 73.9 percent.

According to political scientist Martin Mölder's calculations, with current support levels Isamaa and the Center Party would no longer be able to form a majority together in the Riigikogu. Isamaa would receive 25 seats and the Center Party 24.

SDE would receive 17 seats, Reform Party 15, EKRE 14, and Parempoolsed six.

Among ethnic Estonian respondents, Isamaa leads with 26.5 percent. Next are SDE at 18.4 percent, Reform Party at 16.1 percent, EKRE at 14.8 percent, Center Party at 11.6 percent, and Parempoolsed at 8.8 percent.

Among respondents of other ethnic backgrounds, the Center Party is overwhelmingly first with 70.9 percent. Support for other parties generally ranges between four and five percent.

Among male respondents, Isamaa leads with 26.8 percent, followed by the Center Party at 20.2 percent, EKRE at 18.6 percent, Reform Party at 11.3 percent, SDE at 9.1 percent, and Parempoolsed at 8.2 percent.

Among female voters, Isamaa ranks only third with 19.3 percent. Ahead of it are the Center Party at 23.5 percent and SDE at 21.9 percent. Reform Party has 16.3 percent support among women, EKRE 8.4 percent, and Parempoolsed 5.5 percent.

Isamaa has lost support in Tallinn

In Tallinn, the Center Party leads with 35.5 percent, followed by SDE with 23.2 percent.

Reform Party's support in the capital is 11.4 percent, while Isamaa — which holds the mayor's office — has only 9.9 percent. As recently as May, Isamaa's support in Tallinn was nearly 18 percent.

EKRE has eight percent support in Tallinn, and Parempoolsed 6.8 percent.

The latest consolidated results cover the survey period from 24 August to 19 September, and a total of 4,000 voting‑age Estonian citizens were interviewed.

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