Experts on October 7 anniversary: Unwelcome escalation a clear risk
The recent expansion of the Israel-Gaza conflict into Lebanon and the missile strikes launched by Iran increases the risk of a full-scale regional war, "Aktuaalne kaamera" reported, as the first anniversary of the Hamas attack on Israeli civilians is marked.
Some analysts point to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political future being staked on the ongoing conflict's outcome, something which would make him less, and not more inclined to pursue a quick peace deal.
International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS) director Indrek Kannik told "Aktuaalne kaamera" that in any case a retaliatory strike is likely to occur soon.
He said: "What this response exactly will be, whether it will target Iran's energy complex, its industrial or nuclear industries, or even the leaders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, will become clear in the coming days, because the general assumption is that this attack will happen soon."
Meanwhile, "Aktuaalne kaamera" reported, the European general public's concern and frustration is growing over the civilian casualties caused by Israel, given western backing for its actions, though this pressure is unlikely to change much.
Kannik noted the "clear military goal" is to inflict as much damage as possible on Hamas and Hezbollah; former foreign minister and current MEP Sven Mikser (SDE) called the October 7, 2023, terrorist attack one of the bloodiest in Israel's history.
On the other hand the humanitarian situation in Gaza, with thousands dead now, is "not something that could have been necessarily anticipated," Mikser said, adding that while the situation has escalated since spring and summer, it still has not peaked.
While a firm response from the Israelis towards Iran is likely to be met in kind, prolonging and widening the conflict pose risks to both countries, Mikser said – Iran is not politically or economically stable, and Israel's air defenses and its famed iron dome is not a limitless resource.
This means that Israel is not too interested in playing "missile ping-pong," Mikser said, yet an unwanted escalation – one which might ultimately lead to the U.S. taking more direct steps militarily to protect its own interests – has to be set against political imperatives often outweighing rational considerations.
Israel has launched an incursion into southern Lebanon to strike at the Iranian-backed, Shia Islamic group Hezbollah, October 7 marks one year since the Hamas attack, while the third of the "triple H," the Houthis, based in Yemen, will be watching the situation closely – within a fortnight of last year's Hamas attack, the Houthis started strikes on shipping at the pinch point that is the Strait of Hormuz.
Over 1,000 people, mostly civilians, were killed in the operation launched by Hamas from the Gaza strip a year ago; Israel's subsequent war on Gaza has led to the deaths of thousands of Palestinians and has caused a humanitarian catastrophe.
Foreign minister: Conflict widening 'extremely unfortunate'
Estonia's foreign minister, Margus Tsahkna (Eesti 200) issued a statement on the first anniversary of the October 7, 2023 attack.
He called it "one of the most appalling terrorist attacks in recent history, adding his "thoughts are with the victims, the hostages and their loved ones."
"There is no justification for Hamas' inhuman terror and I completely condemn this despicable attack," the foreign minister added, via a press release.
"Estonia stands in solidarity with Israel who has a full right to defend itself and its people against terror while strictly following the norms of international humanitarian law."
Tsahkna called the widening of the conflict "extremely unfortunate," adding that "the hostilities of the Hezbollah terrorist organization have taken the region to the brink of an even greater threat of war."
"More than a million people have fled their homes in Lebanon and northern Israel and the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Gaza is unacceptable," he went on, and said he supported "all diplomatic efforts to prevent an escalation of hostilities and bring the Middle East back from the brink"
As for long-term solutions, Tsahna said he "remains convinced that this entails a two-state solution that would ensure Israel's security and give Palestine a politically and economically stable future."
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Editor: Andrew Whyte, Aleksander Krjukov
Source: 'Aktuaalne kaamera,' reporter Maria-Ann Rohemäe.