Part of the reason is lower natural gas prices, though these may fluctuate depending on weather conditions and geopolitical developments including those relating to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Marko Allikson of independent energy traders Baltic Energy Partners told ERR Europe's gas storage is at 95-percent capacity, while consumption is lower than last year, ensuring preparedness for the fall, winter and early spring.

He said: "Gas storage tanks are nearly 95 percent full, consumption is even lower than last year, and LNG is sufficiently available if needed."

While this is true Europe-wide there are some regional idiosyncrasies.

"The Baltic states' preparedness for winter is also good, but there is somewhat less natural gas in storage than last year, and consumption, unlike in the rest of Europe, has been rising this year," Allikson went on.

Locally-sourced fuel such as wood chips are readily available and have been experiencing stable prices.

Siim Umbleja of the Estonian power and district heating association (Eesti jõujaamade ja kaugkütte ühing) said that in some areas, such as Pärnu, district heating prices have fallen significantly.

Umbleja also noted no significant issues with fuel availability or supply contracts for the new heating season.

He said: "There have been no signs or reports of any problems, such as people not having contracts signed for the new heating season or any supply difficulties looming anywhere. At least as of today, it seems to be that there should not be any major price fluctuations with the main fuel sources," adding: "If that doesn't happen, then output price shouldn't change either."

One potential change being considered is introducing a fixed service fee for district heating consumers, similar to that used with electricity and gas networks.

The of gas price futures also hinge on geopolitical risks, such as the conflict between Iran and Israel and its potential impact on Qatari LNG exports.

As if to demonstrate how Russia is using its vast natural gas resources as a weapon too, while pipeline gas supplies are still running through Ukraine to western Europe even today, shutting this off would lead to price rises due to constricted supply.

Allikson noted: "In addition to the weather, the price of gas this winter will certainly be affected by the fate of Russian gas transit through Ukraine – the market is expecting this transit to end, but if it doesn't, there will be room for the gas price to drop."

"Currently, the prices of futures contracts for the winter months are at the level of €40-41 per MWh, compared with last year's peak, in November, of €46 per Mwh, falling to 26 per MWh by February 2024."

"So winter is starting off at a lower price level, but the future depends primarily on the weather," Allikson summed up.

Another factor regionally is that district heating prices are regulated by the Competition Authority (Konkurentsiamet), and current rates vary by location, from €62.78 to €138.15 per Mwh (excluding VAT).

For those from more southerly climes, district heating usually involves hot water, centrally controlled and piped into larger apartment buildings, in some cases the by-product of power stations' electricity generation, but usually heated by a fuel such as natural gas.

"Heating season" traditionally runs October 1 to the end of March the following year.

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