Officers: North Korean presence on Ukraine fronts unlikely to shift much
The reported involvement of nearly 12,000 North Korean soldiers in Russia's invasion of Ukraine will not bring significant change to the frontline, two high-ranking Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) officers said.
Appearing on "Ukraina stuudio" on Sunday, deputy chief of staff for operations, Lt Col. Mattias Puusepp said it was "likely a matter of weeks" before North Korean personnel are seen in front-line combat.
At the same time, Puusepp noted, that there is still no concrete evidence that North Koreans have been fighting against Ukraine so far.
He said: "Based on certain video clips, it can be inferred that they have arrived in Russia."
Lt Col. Puusepp added that he had watched the video clip which appeared to show North Korean personnel being issued Russian military uniforms.
"I think that this is probably a matter of the next few weeks before we actually see them fighting somewhere in Kursk, or on actual Ukrainian territory," he went on.
Puusepp said that he could not comment on the quality of the North Korean soldiers being deployed to Ukraine.
"We have all seen those parade photos, where they put on an impressive show of special forces marching with the most impressive gear they have," said Puusepp. "Public sources speculate that special forces have been partially sent to support Russia, but at the moment we mainly don't know."
Puusepp stressed that North Korean personnel are also untested in direct combat. "In training, we can all be tough guys," he said.
"As we've been seeing, a Russian VDV member can break several fiber cement panels with his head. The same likely applies to the Koreans."
"However, how they will manage on the battlefield, under these conditions, we'll likely see in due course," Puusepp went on.
Given the language barrier, the North Korean personnel will likely be grouped together in battalion- or even brigade-sized units, rather than being more dispersed among the occupying Russian forces.
Higher up the chain, Russian liaison officers may be embedded, but they would naturally require interpreters.
"At higher command levels, whatever those might be, Russian advisors and commanders will be integrated using interpreters to direct their actions and to provide them support, be it air support or artillery, or in whatever other form," Puusepp continued.
He noted that at this point, whether the North Koreans have brought their own military equipment or rely on what Russia has provided is not yet known.
As for their impact, "Whether they bring change to the front depends on what they are to be tasked with doing," Puusepp went on.
"Theoretically speaking, if these 10,000 personnel are brought, for example, to the Kursk sector, much depends on the Russians' willingness to 'sacrifice' the North Korean troops."
"For sure it could cause significant difficulties if these 10,000 fighters are concentrated at a very specific section of the front, with a very specific role. And we've seen these kinds of 'meatgrinder assaults,' as they're known as, repeatedly, from the Russians."
"If they use the Koreans the same way, then yes, it could be a problem in a specific section, but not in the bigger picture right now. It depends on whether this agreement means more soldiers can be brought in or if it's a one-off effort," Puusepp concluded.
Terras: I see no major strategic shift to follow from North Korean deployment
Also appearing on "Ukraina stuudio" was former EDF commander and current Isamaa MEP Gen. Riho Terras, who said the main takeaway from the involvement of North Korean soldiers is that the Russian side requires more human resources.
"It has its negative aspects, but one thing it shows is that Russia requires this kind of help," Terras said.
"This means Russia is in a situation in which it has to seek solutions beyond its borders," adding that Pyongyang is one of the few places such help has come from, given China is not actively involved at this point.
It also gives the North Koreans the chance to "shine," he noted.
"China's support for North Korea's actions is certainly there, and for Russia's actions too But North Korea is now able, for the first time in several decades, to demonstrate some foreign policy activity, so this is an opportunity for them," Terras said.
At the same time, the development is not likely to lead to seismic shifts in the overall picture, he added.
"I still don't see any major strategic shift coming from these 10,000 men or these missiles," the general went on.
"Nor do I see the possibility of North Korea providing that much support now. But it shows that Russia is in hot water, though not in a fundamental or all-pervading way. They simply don't want to lose their own people anymore, so it's easier just to use North Koreans."
North Korean soldiers have been filmed receiving uniforms and equipment at a training ground in Russia's far east, appearing to confirm South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) reports that 1,500 soldiers have been sent for military training to be deployed in Ukraine.
While North Korea and the Soviet Union signed an agreement on the peaceful use of nuclear energy in the late 1950s, it was not until 2017 that Pyongyang conducted its first thermonuclear test, meaning the country has been a nuclear power since then.
Ukrainian researchers also say they have found components produced by Western companies inside North Korean missiles Russia used to attack Ukraine.
North Korea's main use of conventional weapons in anger up to the present has been against its democratic neighbor, South Korea. Several border incidents and even fighting have occurred since the Korean War of the early 1950s, most notably the DMZ conflict of the late 1960s. As recently as January this year, North Korea fired more than 200 rounds of artillery shells off its west coast, in the direction of South Korea's Yeonpyeong island, Seoul has said.
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Editor: Andrew Whyte
Source: 'Ukraina stuudio'