Colonel: Recent weeks have brought nothing but negative developments for Ukraine
Over the past week, there have unfortunately been only negative developments for Ukraine in Russia's full-scale war of aggression against the country, Lt. Col. Janek Kesselmann, deputy head of the Estonian Defense Intelligence Center, said during the Ministry of Defense's weekly press briefing on Friday.
Kesselmann stated that the Russian armed forces have continued offensive operations along the entire front line, averaging about 178 attacks per day.
"Last weekend, the intensity even rose to 210 attacks per day, decreasing somewhat in the latter half of this week. The main focus of the Russian Federation's attacks remains near the settlements of Selidove and Kurakhove in the Donetsk region, particularly in the Pokrovsk direction. Based on public sources, we see that Russian Federation units have advanced in the area between these settlements," Kesselmann said.
According to Kesselmann, Russia's recent tactics typically avoid direct entry into populated areas, as this would require more specialized training.
"Clearly, they are unable to provide such training to their soldiers. Instead, they encircle settlements and target them with indirect fire. Once a settlement is encircled, they essentially destroy it. It's a very cynical and brutal approach," he added.
Additionally, Russian units have made advances in the Chasiv Yar area, crossing the Donets River near the Donbas Canal. There has also been progress in the Lyman sector, where Russia is attempting to gain control over the eastern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River.
In areas of the Kursk region occupied by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, no significant changes have occurred over the past week. The Ukrainian armed forces continue maneuvering operations and ambushes against Russian units.
"Russia's advances have been made possible through massive bombardments, including guided bombs, killer drones and indirect fire. This effect is carried out through so-called 'meat-grinder' attacks, where Russia cynically sacrifices its personnel. Russian losses are significant, and it appears that this month will see particularly high casualties for Russia. We estimate that the opponent may lose around 40,000 soldiers this month, both wounded and killed," Kesselmann concluded.
North Korea becomes third party to the war
"The North Korean contingent has now entered the public spotlight. To our knowledge, there are currently between 10,000 and 12,000 North Koreans on Russian territory," Kesselmann stated.
"The Russian State Duma ratified a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement with North Korea on Thursday, October 24. The agreement was signed in Pyongyang on June 19 of this year, during a visit by Russian leader Putin to North Korea. It was presented to the Duma for ratification ten days ago and has now been ratified," Kesselmann said.
According to Kesselmann, this ratification means that Russia has entered into a full-scale military alliance with North Korea.
"If you read the agreement, it's essentially a mutual commitment – albeit wrapped in diplomatic language – for both North Korea and the Russian Federation to initiate immediate bilateral consultations if either faces the threat of armed aggression," Kesselmann explained.
Both parties are also committed to providing each other with immediate military and all available support should either find itself in an armed conflict or state of war.
"This now represents a new reality, where a third party is directly involved in the conflict. The agreement represents the legal aspect, while the presence of North Korean armed forces in the conflict is the practical side," said Kesselmann.
With this agreement, Russia has unequivocally aligned itself with North Korea, escalating tensions throughout the Far East region.
Kesselmann noted that Russia's previous similar agreements under the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) have proved ineffective, with member states disillusioned by Russia's aggression against Ukraine. This disillusionment has led the CSTO into a state of dormancy.
"Clearly, neither Armenia nor Kazakhstan has seen any positive impact from this Russia-led organization," Kesselmann added.
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Editor: Mari Peegel, Marcus Turovski