Expert: Idea of Zelenskyy's plan to force strategic defeat on Russia
In an interview with "Terevisioon," security expert Rainer Saks stated that the victory plan unveiled by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Wednesday is not so much about achieving a military victory by fully liberating Ukraine's territory. Rather, the aim is to impose a strategic defeat on Russia, making it futile for them to continue waging war over the territory.
Commenting on Zelenskyy's plan, Saks noted that it included some small but surprising components. He explained that it was novel because, until now, no one had presented a comprehensive plan for ending the war.
"It may not cover all the areas of action needed for Ukraine to achieve its desired outcomes, but there was an expectation that the plan would include significant demands for weapons, additional air defense systems, etc., from the West. However, these elements have been placed in the classified annex of the plan, so they are not visible in the public version," Saks said.
According to the security expert, the most interesting and innovative aspect is the impression that Ukraine, once active combat ends, seeks to station troops from NATO's major member states on its territory to prevent Russia from launching a new war at any random moment. This would avoid a scenario where peace talks lead to a mere ceasefire or frozen conflict, only for Russia to strike again later.
"It's not explicitly stated, and there are classified annexes, but it seems there are two components to this non-nuclear strategic deterrence: one is the deployment of specific forces from NATO members – the U.S., the U.K., Germany, France and Italy. I assume these won't be regular combat units but rather certain capabilities like air defense etc. The other part involves transferring deterrent weaponry to Ukraine, possibly including ballistic missiles. That's the impression from what President Zelenskyy said in parliament yesterday," Saks summarized the core of the plan.
Saks also assessed that the core idea of the entire plan is not so much to achieve a military victory in the sense that Ukrainian forces will liberate all their territory, but rather to impose a strategic defeat on Russia, making it pointless for them to continue waging war over this territory.
"The most important part of this plan is what's currently missing – the Western countries putting significant pressure on Russia throughout the negotiation process to force them to withdraw from the occupied territories. That seems to be the overall impression of the plan," he said.
According to Saks, it's clear that Ukraine cannot realistically request support that would enable it to liberate territories within the next few months. "They are trying to provide motivation both to Western countries and to their own people by saying, 'Let's end active combat, and then we'll pressure Russia to withdraw from the occupied areas,'" Saks explained.
No facts to support claims of North Korean soldiers in Ukraine
Recently, claims about North Korea's involvement in the war have gained importance, particularly from a propaganda standpoint. "Ukraine is using this very strongly in their communications, and it helped set the stage for the so-called victory plan that President Zelenskyy presented to parliament. However, no actual evidence has been presented to the public showing that thousands of soldiers have been brought onto Russian territory. This is more intelligence information from Ukraine, which politicians have started to use," explained Saks.
Earlier reports have mentioned a few North Korean officers who were killed while observing the use of North Korean-supplied weaponry. There have also been mentions of engineering units that are allegedly operating somewhere in Russia.
"I'm very skeptical that the Russian army is interested in or capable of using large numbers of North Korean soldiers. What might actually be happening is that a smaller unit has been brought to Russia, trained and tested to see if they can be used in military operations against Ukraine," Saks said.
He added that North Korea likely has an interest in this as well, since their units have not been involved in active combat zones for a long time, and they probably want their forces to gain some understanding of real combat situations.
"But again, I emphasize, this is media coverage at the moment, and we don't have any solid evidence that North Korean soldiers are fighting in Ukraine alongside Russian forces," Saks concluded.
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Editor: Mirjam Mäekivi, Marcus Turovski