The issue of voting rights in local elections could become a unifying factor for the current Riigikogu, as differences on the topic are not split strictly along coalition-opposition lines, and there are various nuanced positions.

The only party firmly in favor of the status quo (permanent residents who are not Estonian citizens have the right to vote in local government council elections in Estonia – ed.) is the opposition Center Party, which argues that amending the constitution is unnecessary. According to the party, what matters is a person's connection to their home country, Estonia, rather than their country of birth or citizenship.

The coalition Social Democrats (SDE) have proposed an alternative solution that avoids constitutional amendments, though it remains unclear if they would support such amendments if necessary. "We would support a version where people who are connected to Estonia, who care about Estonian issues and who have a positive outlook toward Estonia are not pushed away. However, the current constitutional amendments… It's possible to make other types of constitutional amendments, but the ones proposed now automatically classify all Russian citizens as a security risk," said Lauri Läänemets, chairman of the Social Democratic Party.

Opposition Isamaa leader Urmas Reinsalu has called on all parties to reach an agreement swiftly. He believes the Social Democrats' position could help bring Reform Party, the largest party in parliament, into alignment on the issue.

"Right now, the prime minister has essentially distanced himself, citing coalition cooperation as a reason for not taking practical steps on this matter. The rhetoric supports the initiative, but in practice, no action has been taken. With 39 seats, the prime minister's party could either sign on to support Isamaa's proposal or introduce a competing proposal of its own, which would make it possible to actually move forward," Reinsalu commented.

The Conservative People's Party (EKRE) has consistently supported barring citizens of third countries from voting in municipal elections, with no exceptions. However, some EKRE members have signed a draft bill that would still allow certain third-country nationals to vote.

Meanwhile, Eesti 200 believes that citizens of aggressor states should not be permitted to vote in local government council elections. According to Lauri Hussar, if amending the constitution is the only way to achieve this, the matter deserves serious deliberation. "But Eesti 200 also believes that this step should be taken, and if there is no other option, it should be done urgently," he said.

Three ways to amend the constitution

There are three ways to amend the constitution in Estonia. The first is via a national referendum. The second requires approval by two consecutive compositions of the Riigikogu. The third option is an expedited process, which requires four times as many votes in favor as against.

"There is often a misunderstanding in the media that a four-fifths majority means four-fifths of the total Riigikogu membership, or 81 votes. However, Section 166 of the Estonian Constitution does not specify this. It simply requires four times more votes in favor than against, so I encourage all lawyers and politicians to do the math on what this number actually is. What is clear is that a two-thirds majority of the Riigikogu, or 68 votes, is required to pass the amendment," explained Jüri Raidla, a constitutional law expert and member of the original Constitutional Assembly.

Raidla and former Chancellor of Justice Allar Jõks both argue that amending the constitution is the only correct way to revoke voting rights.

Jõks noted, "Had the Riigikogu listened to Chancellor of Justice Ülle Madise's advice in 2022, which was to amend the constitution to revoke voting rights, we could now, at the end of 2024, be discussing topics of greater importance to Estonia than whether or how to revoke voting rights."

The remaining question is whether there is enough time to amend the constitution before the next local elections in October 2025. The amendment process takes a minimum of seven months, so it is still technically possible. However, Raidla noted that this timeline is far from ideal from a constitutional perspective.

"The constitution is fundamental; it is the foundation of our rule of law. This means that even when amended under an expedited process, all Estonians – citizens and non-citizens alike – must have time to understand and adapt to these significant changes well in advance," Raidla said.

The Supreme Court ruled over 20 years ago that changing election rules shortly before an election in a way that could significantly impact outcomes in favor of a particular political force cannot be considered democratic.

Allar Jõks, who served as chancellor of justice when these election disputes were heard by the Supreme Court, recalled a principle that any rule changes should be made about a year before an election. "However, exceptions to such principles can be made if a significant public and exceptional interest requires it. I believe there are enough arguments to justify this amendment taking effect less than a year before the elections," Jõks said.

Lauri Läänemets warned that a hasty constitutional amendment could lead Estonia to "lose" cities like Sillamäe, Narva and Kohtla-Järve for the next four years. "My main concern is that if we proceed with a poorly considered constitutional amendment, it could backfire and mobilize Russian citizens who haven't been voting, possibly encouraging them to support the Koos party or other 'For Peace' lists in Ida-Viru County," he said.

In the last local elections in 2021, Russian, Belarusian citizens and gray passport holders made up 96 percent of non-citizens on the voter roll. Over 70,000 were Russian citizens, while nearly 63,000 held gray passports, with approximately 40 percent of each group participating in the election.

Several European countries, including Latvia and Germany, restrict voting rights to citizens only.

"Voting rights are not a matter of social or human rights for citizens of third countries; they are a question of political power," stated Urmas Reinsalu. "The Republic of Estonia expects loyalty from its citizens, as does the Russian Federation from its own. Whether by naturalization or birth, these individuals have chosen political loyalty to the Russian Federation. It is entirely unjustifiable to grant them any share of political power within Estonia."

Politicians from both the opposition and the coalition are optimistic that consensus will be reached and the amendment passed before the elections.

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