Expert: Ukraine's new long-range capabilities forcing Russia into tactical bind
Growing development in Ukraine's long-range strike capabilities following recent United States permission to do so using the MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), has put invading Russian forces in a tricky position, Reform Party MP and Riigikogu defense committee member Alar Laneman said.
For this reason, Russia is conducting small-unit offensives, backed up by artillery, he said. Speaking to ETV show "Ukraina stuudio," Laneman said: "In order to carry out large breakthrough operations, forces need to be concentrated."
"But these then become easy targets, given Ukraine's long-range strike capability. So, the success is, in a sense, a forced approach, though this methodical steamroller-like pressure has unfortunately continued," he went on.
"Unfortunately, the picture has been the same for quite some time: The Russians are quietly pressing forward. According to Ukraine's command, the main effort is focused on Donetsk and Luhansk, with an approach through Dnipro and Kharkiv, into the country's heartland," said Laneman, who is also an Estonian Defense Forces member.
"Everything happening in the north and south are supporting operations. The push to the country's center continues. The primary goal is likely still the seizure of Donetsk and those two oblasts, but there are also signs of a desire to advance further," he added.
Laneman also noted that Russian advances at the front are proceeding only in baby steps, saying: "We're talking about operations on the scale of a company on average. Even when we look at potential encirclement, they span just a few kilometers in either direction."
"But the backdrop is bad, and the reasons are simple—Ukraine lacks sufficient forces," he continued. Host Reimo Sildvee asked Laneman what to make of reports that the Russians have retaken 40 percent of the territory in Kursk oblast, where Ukraine launched an offensive in late summer.
Laneman pointed out that the rest remains under Ukrainian control. "And the fact that fighting is ongoing there still ties up Russian forces," he added.
The recent U.S. permission to attack targets in Russia using U.S.-made missiles, principally the HIMARS-launched ATACMS, has boosted Ukrainian morale, while this capability has been eagerly seized upon, he noted.
As to another U.S. decision, to start supplying Ukraine with infantry mines, Laneman said this would surely assist Ukraine, which is struggling with personnel shortages.
The outgoing Joe Biden administration recently announced the provision of antipersonnel mines to Ukraine.
A map of the Ukraine fronts updated in real time is here.
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Editor: Andrew Whyte, Aleksander Krjukov
Source: 'Ukraina stuudio,' presenter Reimo Sildvee.