Expert: Russia ICBM strike on Ukraine a bid to boost deterrence credibility
In striking the Ukrainian city of Dnipro with an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the Russian regime is aiming to restore the credibility of its strategic deterrence, security expert Rainer Saks said Friday morning.
Speaking to "Vikerhommik," Saks described the move as "desperate," and rejected claims that use of an ICBM, the first since Russia started its full-scale invasion of Ukraine over 1,000 days ago, marks a new phase in the war.
It is more the case of Russian leader Vladimir Putin wanting the use of an ICBM to appear significant, he added.
"Doubts had arisen," Saks said. "It likely seemed to Russian leaders that their strategic deterrence was no longer convincing."
The event should also be seen in the context of western-supplied weaponry to Ukraine, and that country's air defenses.
"What Putin desperately emphasizes with his statement is that this is a weapons system that Western air defense cannot intercept," Saks noted.
While the ICBM used is capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, the missile used carried a conventional warhead and Russia will not be using nuclear weapons, Saks went on, adding that its entire armed forces are tied up in Ukraine.
At the same time, the strike telegraphs the nuclear specter.
"The Russian president wants to create the impression that Russia is ready to use nuclear weapons and is capable of delivering them," Saks said.
Some of Russia's missile systems, like 9K720 Iskander and Kh-47M2 Kinzhal, the latter plane-launched and both with ranges of up to 500 kilometers, are also capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
However, Saks said, the vulnerabilities of these systems have been revealed during the course of the Ukraine war, since they have been downed by western-made air defenses, Saks added.
The Guardian reported Thursday that Ukraine had claimed Russia fired an intercontinental ballistic missile at Dnipro, in eastern Ukraine and the country's fourth-largest city.
Vladimir Putin subsequently announced that the hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile used to strike Dnipro was a new medium-range weapon known as "Oreshnik" (the hazel), and was deployed in response to the U.S. and UK's allowing Kyiv to strike Russian territory with advanced Western weapons, and that more strikes could follow.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the attack "signals escalation."
Ukraine had struck Russia with six U.S.-made MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missiles earlier this week, the Russian leader said, followed by strikes from French-British plane-launched Storm Shadow missiles on the Thursday.
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Editor: Andrew Whyte
Source: 'Vikerhommik'