Expert: US approval of Ukraine missile strikes should hamper Russian operations
The decision by the administration of President Joe Biden to lift restrictions on Ukraine using United States-supplied weapons in long-range strikes on Russia probably won't bring any major turning point in the war, thought it will at least make it harder for Russia to go on the offensive as winter approaches, security expert Rainer Saks said.
The main armament in question is the HIMARS-launched MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missile.
Talking to "Aktuaalne kaamera," Saks said: "Per current information, it unfortunately does not appear that this will bring a turning point in the war such it that would allow Ukraine to start striking Russian positions so heavily that Russian armed forces would be forced to retreat."
"And there is another small nuance here," he went on.
"I have read it that, from the information currently available, permission to use ATACMS missiles has been granted only in those zones where North Korean troops are operating. This means it appears to be a response to the deployment of North Korean troops near the Ukrainian front," said Saks.
Saks expressed the hope that the restrictions will be completely lifted.
Without doing so, there can be no significant turning of the tide, "mainly because very few ATACMS missiles have been provided to Ukraine, and these would not be able to significantly impact Russia's actions."
"However, these would complicate Russia's logistics and make conducting attacks and offensives much more difficult," Saks went on, referring to those ATACMS Ukraine does have in hand.
Rainer Saks is a former foreign ministry secretary general. He is a member of the Parempoolsed party.
Reuters reported a virtual Reversal of policy in the closing weeks of the Biden administration which will permit Ukraine to use U.S.-made weapons for deep strikes into Russia, and Ukraine is reportedly preparing for these, though for security reasons details are being kept strictly confidential.
Ukraine's initial deep strikes are likely to involve ATACMS missiles, which have a range of up to 300 or so kilometers.
The shift comes after months of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urging the U.S. to permit attacks on Russian forces further from Ukraine's border, and follows both Ukraine's own land incursion into the Kursk oblast starting in summer and the deployment of around 10,000 troops from North Korea to the Ukraine front.
Amid fears of escalation and skepticism in some quarters and as voiced by Saks above, and by others as being a case of "too little, too late," the decision may enhance Ukraine's position in any future talks, though it is not clear if the policy will weather the entry into office in January of Donald Trump, for his second term.
As such, along with the US$6 billion in aid expedited by the Biden administration, may be a last ditch attempt to bolster Ukraine's bargaining position ahead of the change in government and given the art-of-the-deal modus operandi of the president-elect.
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Editor: Andrew Whyte, Aleksander Krjukov