"The focus for Russian forces remains the Donetsk region. Although progress has been limited, with daily movements amounting to only a few hundred meters or up to a kilometer, they continue to advance despite Ukraine's strong defenses. Various tactics are being used and movement is dependent on the terrain and type of settlement," Maj. Gen. (ret.) Neeme Väli described recent developments on the front line.

"So far, Ukraine's defense has largely held, but dangerous situations may arise. For example, Russian forces have already entered settlements like Toretsk and Chasiv Yar and have managed to make some advances around the flanks," he added.

Väli noted that Ukrainian forces in these areas face the risk of encirclement. "This risk is real and present in two locations. Near Toretsk, the main Ukrainian supply route remains open, so a major catastrophe is unlikely there. However, there are problems near the city of Vuhledar, where Ukrainian defenses are holding in the center, but Russian forces have bypassed them on the flanks. This pocket is currently approximately 10 kilometers deep and, at its narrowest point, up to 15 kilometers wide. In addition, incidents such as the Russian demolition of a dam near Kurakhove are related to the defense of Vuhledar. If the water level rises significantly and causes flooding, supplying Ukrainian forces in that pocket will become a serious issue, potentially forcing a withdrawal," Väli explained.

Väli also mentioned that while Ukrainian Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi has spoken at length about a potential new Russian offensive in the Zaporizhzhia region, recent reports indicate that Russia has instead relocated troops and equipment from Zaporizhzhia to Donetsk. "It seems they are trying to expand breakthroughs where there is potential for progress. There is also information that additional arms and supplies are being transported from Russia via Mariupol," said Väli, concluding that Russia appears intent on intensifying pressure in Donetsk.

According to Väli, there are currently no signs of Russian attacks slowing along the front lines. "They continue to test various sectors, maintaining their traditional attack routes," he stated.

Väli also noted the arrival of North Korean soldiers and weapons systems at the front lines from North Korea.

Discussing the situation in Russia's Kursk region, Väli highlighted that Ukrainian forces have been skillfully defending recaptured areas. "Battles are primarily taking place around Malaya Loknya, where Russia has attempted a significant offensive but faced setbacks, including the loss of 17 armored vehicles in a single engagement. Ukrainian defenses are holding firm," he said.

He added that maintaining control over Malaya Loknya keeps the northern front open, potentially allowing Ukrainian forces to advance toward Korenevo.

"I believe Russia is attempting to exert as much pressure as possible before the change in the U.S. administration. All parties involved in the conflict understand that a change is coming, though its nature remains uncertain," Väli stated.

Väli suggested that Ukraine hopes for increased support with the new U.S. administration. "While Trump remains an unpredictable figure, in my view, he is more resolute than Biden. Ukrainians are hoping that the U.S., as their largest supporter, will become more decisive," Väli said.

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