ICDS head: Ukraine was prepared for Sunday missile and drone attack
Russia launched its largest missile attack on Ukraine in the past three months, targeting the country's energy infrastructure. Although Ukrainian forces were able to shoot down most of the missiles and drones, the attack still caused widespread power outages. Experts believe that the Russians are continuing attempts to destroy Ukrainian infrastructure, but, as with previous winters, they are unlikely to succeed.
Overnight, Russia attacked Ukraine's energy infrastructure with 120 missiles and 90 drones, causing widespread power and water outages in Odesa.
Indrek Kannik, head of the International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS), who recently returned from Ukraine, said that the attack did not come as a surprise to Ukrainians and that they were prepared for it.
"The Russians had not carried out a large-scale attack for several months and it was clear that they had amassed a certain stockpile of missiles to launch such an attack. From Russia's perspective, the likely goal of this strike was to damage Ukraine's energy system. It certainly caused some harm. However, I would say that, based on initial assessments, it appears Ukraine has managed to prevent the worst outcomes," Kannik said.
As an example, Kannik noted that in Kyiv, Russian attacks missed their intended targets. The percentage of intercepted missiles was higher than before, indicating that Ukraine's air defenses have become stronger nationwide. Nevertheless, over the years, Ukraine's infrastructure has suffered increasing damage, evidenced by the decline in electricity production capacity.
"They are doing what they can to repair power plants, hydroelectric and thermal power stations that have been hit. They are working on repairing substations and ensuring that lines and substations are more secure, but it is, of course, impossible to completely rule out Russia's targeted strikes," said Leo Kunnas, deputy chair of the Riigikogu National Defense Committee.
Despite all efforts, Kunnas believes that Russia will not be able to bring Ukraine's infrastructure to its knees this winter.
According to Kannik, Russia is certainly attempting to escalate the situation before the inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump in January. However, Russia cannot deplete Ukraine's air defense stockpiles solely through infrastructure attacks, as their own resources are limited.
"In most cases, such as with drones, Ukraine does not rely on high-tech solutions. Drones are often shot down using relatively simple, available means. Sunday's attack also demonstrated this, with Ukraine employing various measures. Some were intercepted using F-16 jets, others with the Patriot system and there was even an image of a Ukrainian female soldier taking down a Russian missile with a MANPADS," Kannik explained.
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Editor: Aleksander Krjukov, Marcus Turovski
