EDF colonel: Fighting expected to intensify in Kursk and Kupiansk
The build-up of Russian troops in the border areas indicates a desire to drive Ukrainian forces out of Kursk Oblast in the coming weeks and months, said Col. Ants Kiviselg, head of the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) Intelligence Center.
In Kursk Oblast, attacks by both sides are continuing, with territory shifting hands between them, Col. Kiviselg said at Friday's weekly Ministry of Defense press conference.
The main components of the Russian Armed Forces in Kursk are from naval and airborne units, which suffered losses of approximately a battalion of armored vehicles and around 60 soldiers in the attacks in early November, Col. Kiviselg said.
There have been reports that the number of Russian troops in Kursk Oblast has been steadily increasing and, according to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, there are now around 50,000 soldiers in the area. Approximately 10,000 of those are North Korean, the EDF colonel said.
"Most likely, these 50,000 troops are not just the units that are on the frontline, but there is also a rear element supporting the front line operations," Col. Kiviselg said.
"At the same time, it can be said that such a large number of troops and a possible concentration in the border areas indicates the desire to push Ukrainian forces out of Kursk Oblast in the coming weeks or months. It is likely that this will be done before the arrival of the cold weather, or at the latest in January 2025," Col. Kiviselg noted.
There has been an increase in the number of attacks in the Luhansk and Donetsk directions by the Russian Federation's mechanized units.
"One of the most critical places on the whole front line is the direction of this offensive in Donetsk Oblast," Col. Kiviselg said. "The main points of contact are happening in the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove regions, where the pressure from the Russian Federation has been constant in recent weeks."
In the past week, Russian troops have captured 90 square kilometers of land in the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove region.
"It can be said that around half of the contacts on the front line are happening in the direction of the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove and the ground troop attacks are receiving additional support from the air. There is also a higher amount of long-range fire attacks in these areas is than in other areas on the frontline," Col. Kiviselg said.
The Russian Federation has entered the settlements of Toretsk and Kurakhove, as well as the settlement of Dal'nje, to the south of Kurakhove.
"We can say that these mechanized attacks and the continued Russian pressure have not yet been affected by the deteriorating weather conditions, and the Russian Federation has been able to maintain a high tempo of attacks," Col. Kiviselg added.
In the Kurakhove region, Russian Federation forces actions indicate the likely aim of retaking the Kurakhove, while forcing Ukrainian forces to retreat westwards or dispersing them to then destroy them, the EDF colonel said.
The Terniska dam near the settlement of Kurakhove is also likely to have been attacked, Col. Kiviselg said. He noted that some damage has been caused to the dam, but fortunately no major flooding has yet occurred in the area, which would significantly restrict the Ukrainian forces' movement and supplies.
"At the moment, the Ukrainians at the moment are holding up well at the settlement of Kurakhove," Col. Kiviselg said.
The Russian Federation has also made tactical advances in the border areas of Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk oblasts in the Vuhledar region, some 20 kilometers south of Kupiansk.
The Russian Federation's objective there appears to be to support the main line of attack, which is Pokrovsk and Kurakhove, as well as to cut through the Ukrainian supply routes.
Col. Kiviselg noted that more and more messages about the involvement of North Korean troops are appearing in the media. "As far as we know, there are probably around 10,000 North Korean soldiers who have had contact with Ukrainian units on the front line in recent days," he said.
Col. Kiviselg added that the North Korean soldiers who have arrived in Russia are not all in Kursk Oblast, but many are in fact still in the Eastern Military District, where they are receiving additional training, before heading to the front.
The participation of North Koreans in the war is, according to Col. Kiviselg beneficial to both North Korea and Russia. Their involvement in active combat gives the Russian Federation the opportunity to maintain a very high offensive tempo., while the North Korean soldiers themselves will also gain experience of modern combat.
Russia is additionally providing North Korea with material and technological support that would not ordinarily reach the country from elsewhere due to sanctions, Col. Kiviselg said.
It is likely that over the next week there will be an intensification of fighting in both Kursk and the Kupiansk region. In the Kurakhove region, the current high battle tempo will be maintained, Col. Kiviselg said.
November is also likely to see an increase in drone attacks, according to the EDF intelligence chief.
"It is likely that the Russian Federation will step up attacks with its unmanned attack vehicles against Ukraine's critical infrastructure, especially before the arrival of winter. We have also seen in statistical terms, that while in September there were around 1,200 UAV attacks on Ukrainian territory, in October that was already up to 2,000,. In November we can expect this number to increase further," Col. Kiviselg said.
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Editor: Valner Väino, Michael Cole