EDF colonel: Ukrainians under huge pressure in Pokrovsk direction
In November, Russia has lost an unprecedented 46,000 personnel, said Col. Ants Kiviselg, head of the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) Intelligence Center. The Ukrainians have held up remarkably well against massive Russian pressure in the Pokrovsk direction, the EDF colonel said.
Speaking at Friday's weekly Ministry of Defense press briefing, Col. Kiviselg said the Russian Armed Forces have not changed their tactical approach in Ukraine over the last week and the average number of attacks per day was still around 185.
According to Col. Kiviselg, the center of the operations is still in the Pokrovsk-Kurakhove direction, where the Russian Federation forces have been moving steadily forward with the help of so-called infantry "meat attacks."
"According to publicly available geo-location data, they have gained control of the Shevchenko settlement, four kilometers south-west of Pokrovsk, which gives them the opportunity to influence the supply lines connecting Pokrovsk with Zaporizhzhia. On the other hand, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have shown great heroism in defending the small villages south of Kurakhove along the Sukhi Yaly River line and have resisted Russian attempts to close off the area with attacks from the north and south throughout the week," the EDF colonel said.
Col. Kiviselg said that, according to public figures, around 3,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in the Pokrovsk region in two weeks. "Obviously, these numbers increase the closer they get to Pokrovsk. According to the Kyiv Independent, the Russian forces have lost an unprecedented 46,000 personnel in combat during the whole month of November, and 307 Russian tanks, 899 combat vehicles and 884 different artillery systems have been destroyed during the month as a hole. In total, about three billion USD-worth of equipment," Col. Kiviselg explained.
The fact that Ukraine's defenses have withstood this kind of pressure is remarkable, according to Col. Kiviselg.
Deteriorating weather conditions bring relief to Ukraine
The deteriorating weather conditions have come as a relief to Ukraine, Col. Kiviselg said, as they make it more difficult for the enemy to use air power and heavy equipment, essentially preventing them from fighting at full strength.
"Although the Russian Federation forces have been making slow progress towards Pokrovsk, the breakthrough desired at an operational level has not been achieved. Therefore, Russia is increasing pressure on Ukrainian units in positions in Kursk Oblast, and the center of gravity of the fighting may shift to this region by the end of the year," Col. Kiviselg said.
The EDF colonel added that on parts of the front line, Ukraine's defenses are currently under much less pressure.
"Ukrainian units have also made progress in the Kupiansk direction, where two bridgeheads that were created when crossing the Oskil River have been cleared. Ukraine has also continued to launch systemic deep-penetration strikes against Russian military infrastructure, using both allied weaponry and systems developed by Ukraine itself," said Col. Kiviselg said.
Events in Syria have complicated situation in Russia
Col. Kiviselg said Russia's situation has been made much more difficult by the unfolding events in Syria and its possible spill-over into the North Caucasus.
"It is no secret that Russia is packing up its military bases in Syria. According to the information we have, the Russian contingent is composed of two main parts: two military police units (approximately 1,200 personnel in total) and the Syrian contingent of the Russian Armed Forces , which is manning the Tartus and Khmeimim military bases. These units totaled between 6,000 and 7,500 personnel. As of December 8, Russia has withdrawn its vessels to the port of Tartus."
According to Col. Kiviselg, a large number of transport flights to Russia have been made from the Khmeimim airbase. "To this end, according to public information, Russia has also asked Turkey for help to organize its evacuation operations. Russia has also deployed several of its fleets to make preparations for the evacuation. In some ways, Russia's actions are reminiscent of 2015, only in the opposite direction," he said.
Col. Kiviselg said Russia will probably try to maintain presence in Syria in the longer term, but its success will likely depend on negotiations with the Syrian formations now in control of the situation.
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