Northern Lights on display alongside fireworks on New Year's Eve
Aurora hunters have reason to celebrate, as a strong geomagnetic storm is expected at the end of the year. Under optimal conditions, the glow of the northern lights might be visible as far south as northern Poland.
In Estonia, however, the spectacle may be obscured by a clouds approaching from the southwest, with clearer skies forecast only in northeastern Estonia on New Year's Eve.
The strong geomagnetic storm is primarily due to solar flares that occurred on December 29 and 30. In addition, several smaller solar flares were released in recent days.
While electromagnetic radiation, which can disrupt radio communications, reached Earth within minutes, the plasma ejected during the more powerful flares takes longer to arrive.
These factors are expected to create a strong geomagnetic storm when they collide with Earth's magnetic field on the evening of December 31, according to solar astrophysicist Ryan French.
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued a level-three (strong) geomagnetic storm warning for December 31, as reported by Space.com. This warning is good news for aurora enthusiasts, as such a powerful storm could make the northern lights visible even at a latitude of 50°, which corresponds to northern Germany and northern Poland in Europe.
According to current forecasts, the strongest geomagnetic disturbances on December 31 are expected between 5 p.m. and 8 p.m. Estonian time.
However, the predicted geomagnetic activity will start to increase around 11 a.m. and remain above normal levels until 5 a.m. the following morning. The visibility of the northern lights largely depends on when exactly the stream of charged particles reaches Earth's atmosphere. It is worth staying updated with real-time data from satellites located far from Earth as darkness falls.
Solar storms occur when the magnetic field lines of the Sun break, reconnect, or rearrange in certain areas. In about half of these cases, a large amount of matter and charged particles are ejected into space.
Near the Earth's magnetic north and south poles, these particles can reach the upper layers of the atmosphere and collide with oxygen and nitrogen atoms. Depending on the amount of energy involved and the specific element, these collisions can emit greenish, reddish, yellowish, or even bluish-violet light. To the human eye, these appear as auroras.
NOAA rates geomagnetic storms on a G-scale, where the weakest storms are classified as G1 (minor) and the strongest as G5 (extreme). In this case, NOAA has rated the storm as G3, meaning it is a strong geomagnetic storm.
The Sun's 11-year activity cycle is currently near its peak, which means stronger solar flares may occur more frequently this year than usual.
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Editor: Airika Harrik, Helen Wright